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000
FXUS64 KEWX 231119
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
619 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

All is fairly quiet overnight across South-Central Texas at the
present hour. Temperatures are currently in the 50s to 60s with
light southerly winds. Low clouds can be seen across the
southwestern CWA but these should expand and cover most locations by
sunrise. Dewpoints are in the 50s area wide and our recommendation
is to go outside this morning and enjoy them and the cooler air
because they will be gone later today and dewpoints that low are not
in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

Southerly winds today will be in the 10-15 mph range with some
higher gusts and this will lead to moisture advection with surface
dewpoints likely back in the lower to middle 60s by the late
afternoon hours and into the upper 60s by tomorrow. No appreciable
rain is expected with this increase in low-level moisture as weak
upper ridging moves into the area. Highs today will be on the
increase as well with highs topping out in the upper 70s to lower
80s with the warmer values in the Rio Grande Plains. Lows tonight
will also be on the increase with lows in the middle 60s to near 70.
Can`t completely rule out some drizzle late tonight and tomorrow
morning for portions of the area. There is enough of a moist layer
with some 20 knot southerly winds just above the surface but lapse
rates may be questionable. Will leave drizzle out of the forecast
for tomorrow for now. However, some patchy fog may be possible and
will include the mention of that for the eastern counties. Highs
tomorrow be into the lower 80s for most of the area with values near
90 degrees closer to the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The upper level ridge will slide east Thursday while an upper level
low over southern California opens and lifts northeast through the
Rockies. Lee side cyclogenesis takes place Thursday afternoon, with
the surface low lifting northeast through the Plains Friday and into
the upper Midwest Friday night. This will result in an increase in
southerly winds and breezy conditions over the region Thursday and
Friday, along with continued influx of low level moisture beneath
the cap.

The tail end of the weak upper level forcing may generate isolated
convection across the Trans Pecos, along the dryline, Thursday
afternoon, which could potentially make it into the far northwest
areas of the forecast area Thursday evening, mainly northern Val
Verde county, before weakening. Farther east late Thursday night
through Friday morning, isolated showers will be possible beneath
the cap.

As the aforementioned surface low lifts northeast the dryline moves
farther east into the southern Edwards Plateau and west-central Texas
Friday afternoon. At question is the cap and amount of forcing, but
ahead of it we could have a potential for a few strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon and evening across the Hill Country and into
central Texas.

Another upper level low is forecast to dig into the Four Corners
Saturday and come out into the Plains Saturday night into Sunday
morning. This system is forecast to be stronger, although take a
similar track lifting northeast through the Plains. After the
dryline retreats back west Friday night, it`s forecast to move back
east into the southern Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings indicate the cap may completely eroded
through the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, allowing for a
greater potential for storms to develop Saturday afternoon and
evening, along with a risk for a few strong to severe storms. The
storms could weaken/decay as they move east into the I-35 corridor
late Saturday night into Sunday morning. We will watch model trends
closely and refine the Friday through Sunday forecast further of the
next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR stratus is in place at the San Antonio sites and will be moving
into AUS shortly. MVFR is in place at DRT and could see some MVFR
ceilings for the I35 sites later this morning. Winds will be from the
south through the period with a bit higher speeds expected for DRT.
MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible tonight as low-level moisture
continues to increase across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  84  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  82  68  82 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  91  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  82  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             66  86  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  83  67  85 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  83  68  84 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  83  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           67  84  70  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...76
Aviation...29