Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 222348
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
648 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Key Messages

* Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for Near Critical Fire Weather
  conditions for the Rio Grande Plains, Winter Garden, and Edwards
  Plateau into this evening

Latest GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that skies have cleared out
into early this afternoon across South-Central Texas. There is a
bank of clouds to our north in association with the wrap around
moisture from the exiting upper level low. These clouds will clip
our northeastern most counties. Otherwise, it will trend as a warm
and sunny afternoon with light to moderate north-northwesterly
breezes. Highs will top out in the lower 90s along the Rio Grande
while locations farther east top out in the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight through Saturday night will continue to see benign weather
as a progressive mid-level ridge moves across our area behind the
exiting upper low to the east and in the advance of a large upper
level trough pushing into the western CONUS. A surface high also
builds southward across northern and central Texas through tonight
before shifting eastward from Saturday into Saturday night. The
winds respond by becoming light before eventually shifting out of
the east on Saturday then southeast into Saturday night. Tonight
should see the overnight lows bottom out in the 40s to low to mid
50s. Saturday looks to trend seasonably mild with afternoon high
temperatures ranging from the 70s into the low 80s. 50s will be
common for Saturday night. No rain expected in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A portion of the upper low currently located off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest will drop into the southwestern U.S. over the next
couple of days. This initial piece of energy is then expected to
move across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle late Sunday.
Some lift associated with this feature will help generate some
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday evening and continuing
into Monday morning across most of south-central Texas. With the
stronger lift expected to remain mostly to our north, our counties
across the Hill Country and adjacent portions of the I-35 corridor
closer to central Texas will see the better chance for rainfall. In
addition, given the season and strength of this system, we can`t rule
out some strong to severe storms, mainly over portions of the
southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and adjacent I-35 corridor.
Unfortunately, areas out west across the Rio Grande plains may not
see any rainfall during the mentioned period. Rainfall amounts for
the month of March here have mainly been at or below 1/4", with
amounts lowering to near 1/10" right along the Rio Grande north of
Del Rio and across far southern Maverick county.

A Pacific front moves in from the west Monday, with some of the
models showing the front may hang up across the coastal plains. We
will keep the forecast dry for most areas Monday night, but did opt
to show a low chance for precipitation over our coastal plains
counties. Dry air in the low-levels remains in place across all areas
on Tuesday. A second upper disturbance moves in from the west on
Wednesday. Significant moisture return ahead of this system will be
lacking, but we could see enough moisture to generate some showers
and storms across the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor Wednesday
afternoon. Mid and upper level ridging moves in from the west on
Thursday and Friday and this should keep the region dry with gusty
south winds returning by late Thursday or early Friday.

High temperatures through the period look to remain near normal, with
overnight lows at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions currently prevail across south-central Texas. MVFR
ceilings may develop through the Hill Country after 09Z and wrap
southeast into the I-35 corridor near San Antonio after 12Z. HREF
probabilities of this occurring have increased to around 50-70%
across the Hill Country and 30-50% around San Antonio. The ceilings
should scatter out 16Z-18Z. Otherwise. gusty NW to N winds continue
early this evening with gusts between 20-30KT. Gusts should
gradually drop off after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A warm and drier airmass is now in place over the western half of
South-Central Texas where minimum humidities this afternoon will
drop into the teens and 20s while northwesterly winds trend of
around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement remains in effect through 8 pm this evening for areas
across the Rio Grande Plains, Winter Garden, and Edwards Plateau.
These areas have seen only spotty rainfall over the past recent
weeks to months. Pending the wind speeds, there may be brief
localized critical fire weather conditions in a few spots. Fire
weather concerns subside Saturday with lighter winds and a slight
bump up in the humidity levels.

Southeasterly winds and low-level moisture return to most areas on
Sunday as an upper level weather system moves into the desert
southwest. The exception will be across far western Val Verde county
where some dry, westerly winds may briefly move in behind the dryline
during the afternoon hours. The chance for wetting rains increases
across most of the region Sunday evening into Monday morning. The
exception will be over the Rio Grande plains where little to no
rainfall is expected. A Pacific cold front ushers more dry air
across most of the region Monday into Wednesday and this will
increase fire weather concerns, especially over areas that receive
little to no rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  75  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  51  75  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            49  73  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           57  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        51  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             51  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        51  76  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   52  75  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  76  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           54  77  55  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...99
Aviation...76


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