382
FXUS64 KEWX 061757 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Light streamer showers are seen near and south of San Antonio early
this morning. This activity should spread north into Central TX
later this morning with a small chance of one or two breaking the
cap this afternoon. PWat values should hover near or above 1.5
inches and there should be plenty of low level wind to support the
roll cloud pattern in the lower portion of the conveyor belt of the
upper low moving into the central/northern Plains states. The mostly
cloudy day should help hold temperatures close to seasonal values,
but above normal temperatures are expected near the Rio Grande where
some downsloping plateau air mixes into the area. The transition to
more stable air is more complete by this evening as a more dry zonal
pattern develops over TX. The surface pressure gradient should
weaken tonight and this could allow for a more stable fog pattern
which could become dense in areas where good rains fell. Tuesday,
the weaker pressure gradient and an eastward mixing of the dry-line
will bring much more sunshine into the area and a significant uptick
in daytime heating. The San Antonio area should get the first taste
of mid 90s heat so far this year, but lower maxes are still expected
over the rain-soaked soils around Austin. High RH values Tuesday
could send the Heat Index soaring, and a few areas could see near
advisory level values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mid and upper level high pressure off the coast of the western U.S.
along with low pressure over the Intermountain West will yield a Rex
block pattern as we head into the middle portion of this week. Across
our region, west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist in the mid
and upper levels of the atmosphere. In the lower levels, the thermal
ridge remains strong and this combined with warm air off the Mexican
plateau will result in continued above normal temperatures on
Wednesday. Most areas will see highs in the 90s along with humid
conditions. Temperatures will be hotter (100-105) across the Rio
Grande plains as the dryline mixes eastward during the afternoon
hours. We will need to monitor areas along and east of I-35 for a few
spots briefly approaching Heat Advisory levels with the heat index
near 108 degrees. Some convergence along the dryline and perhaps some
weak upper support may allow for some afternoon convection to
develop over the Hill Country into north Texas. For now, rain chances
appear favored to our north, so we will keep the forecast dry. On
Thursday, a cold front will move southward through the region, with
the GFS trending a little stronger with the cooler air behind this
front. The most notable cooling will occur across the Hill Country
and I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward. Farther west into the
Rio Grande plains, another round of hot temperatures in the 100-105
degree range will remain in the forecast. We could see a few showers
or storms develop behind along and behind the front and will keep a
low chance for precipitation in the forecast for the Hill Country and
nearby I-35 corridor. The cooling trend continues for Friday and
Saturday along with a low chance for showers and storms initially
confined to the Rio Grande on Friday. An upper level jet moves across
north Texas on Saturday into Sunday and this may help spread low
rain chances farther east into the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and
coastal plains. Highs for Friday through the upcoming weekend will
generally range from the upper 70s to upper 80s along with lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR cigs are forecast for the area terminals at least through
21Z with KDRT reaching to VFR between 19Z and 20Z. VFR conditions
are expected to stay through this evening with cigs and vbsys
lowering to MVFR/IFR overnight into at least mid Tuesday morning.
Showing VCSH for the I-35 corridor sites for this afternoon as hires
models are producing some light to moderate echos and even a few
storms. This scenario depends in cap inversion breaking. Otherwise, a
dry forecast for the tonight into Tuesday period. There are some
hints of LIFR for KSAT and KSSF around the 10Z to 15Z time frame.
Stay tuned for future updates as far as this possibility. Southerly
winds 10 to 12 knots for the rest of this afternoon and early evening
and 10 knots or less tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  91  73  92 /   0  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  91  72  92 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  88  72  92 /  10  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  99  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  89  72  90 /  10  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  93  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  91  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  89  74  91 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  92  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...05
Aviation...17