Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250905
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
505 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A strong surface high pressure east of the Appalachians has
produced a wedge that has extended as far south as Florida per
surface analysis this morning. A large-scale deeply amplified
trough will begin to progress eastward as the surface low tracks
to the northeast. As a result, the surface pressure gradient
across the forecast area will tighten and produce gusty conditions
through much of the short term period. Gusts between 25 and 35
mph have already been observed this morning across north Georgia.
Sustained easterly/southeasterly winds are expected to ramp up
over the course of the day to produce sustained winds between 15
and 25 mph with gusts between 35 and 40+ mph. Locations across our
highest ridge tops in the northeast Georgia mountains could see
locally higher gusts. The Wind Advisory has been expanded
spatially to include the metro Atlanta area and counties further
south and west. Additionally, the Wind Advisory has also been
extended in time to remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon.
This will be a prolonged wind event where some locations may be
experiencing wind gusts around 35 mph or higher for the majority
of the duration of a 36 hour period. Downed trees and limbs could
lead to power outages through the duration of the Wind Advisory.

Although minimum relative humidities are not expected to meet
Fire Danger Statement criteria (most locations should remain above
25% for 4 hours today, though a few areas in the northeast
Georgia mountains could flirt with critical thresholds less than
25% for a few hours this afternoon), we do meet the wind and fuel
moisture criteria. Fuel moistures at 8% or less are located over
much of north Georgia this morning. Moisture recovery will be poor
today for areas north of I-20 where relative humidities in the
30s and 40s are forecast. Given these circumstances, have opted to
issue a Fire Danger Statement through 09Z Tuesday when the rain
from the system to our west is expected to move in, alleviating
fire danger concerns.

Rain showers will gradually begin to infiltrate northwest Georgia
just after midnight on Tuesday. Initially, instability will be
limited as the line moves through northwest Georgia. However, a
plume of instability will push northward while a surface low spins
up along the northern Gulf Coast. As a result, a few isolated
thunderstorms could be embedded within the line as it tracks
eastward through the day. While the threat for severe weather is
low, gusty winds, periods of heavy rainfall, and lightning will be
the hazards associated with any thunderstorms that develop.
Generally 0.5 to 1.5" of rain are expected with the highest
amounts focused along an axis from the Columbus area extending
northeast to Towns County. The front is expected to slow to a
crawl Tuesday afternoon and will kick off the beginning of the
extended period of the forecast.

KAL


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The long term period picks up on Tuesday night with the expansive
mid-/upper-level trough that was talked about in the short term
discussion slowly shifting eastward. At the surface, the SREF
depicts two primary areas of low pressure: one area over the
western Great Lakes region and another area over the Gulf Coast. A
trailing cold front from the former is progged to push into the
CWA on Wednesday, while the latter could bring an influx of
moisture and instability as far north as the I-20/I-85 corridors
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The SREF depicts anywhere
from a 40% to 70% chance for CAPE > 500 J/kg across said area
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Taking into account this at
least marginal CAPE, strong bulk shear, but anticipated poor mid-
level lapse rates, isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be
expected. An isolated strong storm or two with gusty winds will be
possible.

As far as total rainfall goes (which overlaps some with the short
term period), ensemble guidance is projecting 0.75" to 1.75"
which aligns with our total QPF. Mean ensemble guidance for PWAT
is 1.25" to 1.75", and the FFC daily maximum is around 1.50". The
CWA is outlooked in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding per the
WPC, so any issues should be isolated. In terms of antecedent
conditions, near-surface relative soil moisture is 55% to 65%
CWA-wide and streamflows are normal to above-normal (especially
across central GA) so minor rises on creeks, streams, and rivers
will be possible. The trough axis is progged to shift east of the
CWA on Thursday night and high pressure will set up over the
Southeast Friday through the weekend. Fire weather conditions
(relative humidity, winds/gusts, and finer fuel moistures) will
bear watching on Friday and Saturday as conditions dry out.

Martin


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR through much of TAF cycle with cigs gradually decreasing to
MVFR after 04Z Tuesday. IFR cigs expected after 9Z at KATL with
PROB30 for -SHRA from 09 to 12Z. Breezy easterly winds at 15 to 18
KT will gust between 25 and 30KT through forecast period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs. High confidence on remaining elements.

KAL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  50  63  53 /   0  20  80  80
Atlanta         63  54  64  53 /   0  40  90  60
Blairsville     56  44  55  48 /   0  40  90  60
Cartersville    64  53  64  51 /   0  50  90  40
Columbus        69  59  71  57 /   0  20  80  60
Gainesville     60  49  58  51 /   0  30  90  60
Macon           67  56  74  60 /   0   0  70  70
Rome            65  53  65  51 /   0  60  90  30
Peachtree City  65  55  67  54 /   0  30  90  50
Vidalia         68  56  79  63 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>022-030>033-041>044-052-053-066-067-078-079-089>092-102>104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...KAL


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