Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

No updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Stratocu breaking up over NW MN and parts of E ND this aftn and
trend should be some clearing thru the evening, esp east of the
Red River. West of the Red River the persistent low level
moisture should allow low clouds and some fog to reform. In
clearer areas east of the Red River, patchy fog is also possible.

Focus is then on Friday system and arrival timing. Short range
models in good agreement on timing of snow eastward and used them
to time snow arrival in hourly pop/wx grids into Friday night. The
HRRR and RAP are a bit slower than the blended conshort and ECAM
guidance used for pops however. Idea is for snow to move into the
western fcst area mid morning....reach parts of the Red River
valley in the mid to late afternoon. The band of snow will be
orientated northwest to southeast. Temps ahead of the snow will be
above freezing but will fall to or just below freezing as the snow
moves in. Thus anticipating little liquid precipitation. Snow
rates should be quite high for several hours, esp in central ND
Minot-Devils Lake-Jamestown-Valley city region Friday aftn due to
good overlay of low/mid level frontogenesis and upper level
lift. Snow rates of 1-2 inch per hour psbl in this area where snow
totals of 8 or more has the highest chance of occurring.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

How far east will the heavier snow get before the
lift/frontogenesis transitions a bit more into southern Minnesota
Friday night. Northern Red River valley should see several inches
but could possibly get more if the lift remains strong. For now
went advisory mid/nrn valley. Snow will taper off western fcst
area after midnight Friday night and could be replaced by some
freezing drizzle as low level moisture remains but main seeding
clouds move out. Warnings/advisories and snow amounts coordinated
well among the neighbors for this event.

Lingering snow and rain will be possible across far southeastern ND
and west central MN early Saturday morning. As the bulk of the
precipitation exits the region to the south and east through mid day
Saturday, dry air aloft could cause the loss of ice nuclei over
eastern ND. As this occurs areas of freezing drizzle will be
possible. However, 10-15 mph southeast winds at the surface may mix
and dry out the near surface layer, so impacts from freezing drizzle
will likely be minimal.

A second shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow aloft is expected
to move into southern Canada on Sunday. This shortwave will bring a
second round of snow to eastern North Dakota and much of
northwestern  and north central Minnesota. Snow is expected along
and north of the Highway 2 corridor Sunday afternoon and evening.
Further south, warm afternoon temperatures near and just above the
surface will support a mixed precipitation type of rain and snow.

The active pattern continues for Monday as a central Plains low
moves eastward to our south. A daytime rain/snow mix and overnight
snow will be possible across the eastern ND and northwest MN region
Monday through late Monday night with the best chance for precip
south of Highway 2 and across far southeast ND and western MN.

Although there is low confidence in exact amounts, snowfall
accumulation Sunday through Monday night will not be as high as the
Friday storm system. However, as snowfall melts during the day and
refreezes at night, along with light snowfall accumulation, roadways
may be slick and hazardous during the morning and late evening hours
during this period.

Quiet weather will return mid week as a surface high builds over the
northern Plains. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s
will help begin to melt weekend snowfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Ceilings have generally been holding in the VFR range, with the
exception of KDVL. Think these ceilings will hold into Friday
morning, until lower ceilings begin to spread in from central ND
associated with the winter storm. Wind speeds have lowered a bit
in model guidance, so am doubting there will be much blowing snow,
expect possibly at KDVL. However the snow may be heavy at times
once it gets here, which appears to be mid to late afternoon at
KDVL/KGFK/KFAR. KGFK may be more on the fringe, with the heavier
bands going down from KDVL to KFAR. So conditions should be worst
from 00z to 06z in this TAF period.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday
     for NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday
     for MNZ001-002-027-031.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for



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