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000
FXUS63 KFGF 161847
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
147 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions will develop early this morning and continue
  through the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph can be expected at
  times within portions of southeast North Dakota, west-central
  and northwest Minnesota. There is a 30 percent chance for
  gusts higher than 55 mph particularly under heavier showers
  and weak thunderstorms.

- There is a 50% chance for greater than one inch of rainfall
  through Wednesday morning. Highest chances are across the
  Devils Lake Basin, southeast North Dakota, and west central
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Dry air driving near critical fire weather conditions in
northwest Minnesota is starting to be overcome by approaching
rainfall/moisture. Thus these conditions are no longer expected
to be present.

Otherwise, the forecast thoughts in previous updates remain
valid. Gusty easterly winds in the 40s to low 50s prevail in
portions of west-central Minnesota. There is still around a 20%
chance gusts over 55 mph could occur in this area with the help
of relatively more robust convection that should encroach upon
the area within the next 2-5 hours.

Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024..

Areas of rain and embedded weak thunderstorms continues to swing
through the area from the south. This will continue through the
day over most of eastern ND into west-central MN. The
aforementioned dry pocket migrating into northwest MN is still
forecast to contribute to near critical fire weather conditions
near Lake of the Woods to Red Lakes area this afternoon.

Winds are still gusting into the 40s, with a few exceeding 50
mph in west-central MN. Still expecting gusts to 55 mph at times
in southeast ND into west-central MN today, with potential of
some gusts over 55 mph with help from relatively more robust convection.

Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024...

Showers/scattered thunderstorms have started to fill in along
axis of elevated WAA and nose of strong LLJ along the Hwy 2
corridor of northeast ND. There remains a region of more stable
air farther south due to a dry pocket of BL Td`s over the
southern RRV, and rain has struggled to develop into this area.
This dry layer should shift northeast as moist BL conditions
arrive from the south long the leading edge of an approaching
warm front (already seeing this trend in SD). This dry pocket
is timed out to arrive in north central MN by late morning/early
afternoon as daytime heating starts to pick up and the result
will be a brief period of RH around 25% while winds 10-20 mph
gust to 30 mph resulting in near critical fire weather for a
brief window through 20Z in our northeast. SPS was issued for
those areas.

Regarding winds: There have been sporadic reports of 40-42 mph
gusts within the advised area so far (similar gusts outside the
advisory closer to showers/weak thunderstorms farther north).
The window where models show deepest mixing is still approaching
(14Z-20Z) so these trends align with forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A strong mid/upper low is deepening on the lee side of the central
Rockies early this morning, with the surface low now over
western Nebraska. Deep southerly southerly flow is building into
the Northern Plains with a plume of deepening moist air northward,
while drier low levels are still in place over our northeast due to
low level easterly flow out of Ontario. A strong LLJ of 50+kt is
already in place and guidance shows further strengthening this
morning as the mid level low continues to shift northeast into the
Plains. This mid/upper low will be responsible for waves or
organized rain and embedded thunder through tonight/Wednesday
morning as it transitions east-northeast. The main period of
rainfall should be today with strong forcing and organization along
deformation and and inverted trough axis. There is a trend for these
features to favor the our western and southern CWA, maintaining
drier air and lighter QPF totals in the northeast.

Regarding Strong Winds: East-southeast flow expected as the strong
(50-60kt) LLJ transition over our southern CWA and this direction has
limited analogues for high wind events in our CWA as cross valley
momentum transfer can be limited. Still, there are local terrain
effects that support some downslope in west central MN, and
conservative mixed layers would support 45-55 mph gusts across our
southern CWA today, and I expanded the advisory into southeast ND
accordingly. Some guidance that tends to carry a bias (GFS/RAP)
shows a deeper mixed layer and would actually support better chances
for warning impact winds. Considering the lack of
analogues and unfavorable direction I am not confident enough to
issue a warning based on those model mixing heights. HREF does
reflect a a 20-40% prob for greater than 55 mph winds within the
advised area. One factor that could aid in momentum transfer would
be heavy rain showers/weak thunderstorms and we can`t rule out
warning impacts.

Wednesday night-Friday: As this initial mid/upper low transitions
east-northeast it eventually merges into a second (much colder)
mid/upper low (currently over British Columbia). CAA along with
weaker energy rotating around this upper low could result in
additional light rain/snow chances through this periods. While there
is a signal for snow, probabilities for more than a dusting are very
low, and warm ground temperatures and daytime temperatures will
tend to limit impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Rain will continue across the area thorugh the night though dry
air has been eating away at some of the echos further into
central North Dakota. This will eventually spread north and east
tomorrow morning as rain clears towards tomorrow afternoon. Cigs
are a mix of VFR and MVFR with IFR in central North Dakota.
Tough forecast overall but expect winds to decrease tonight
around 23 to 02Z as gusts drop off and ceilings continue to
lower through the afternoon. A few vis reductions but mainly
above 3 miles except in heavier cores to 1-2 miles.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-039-049-
     052-053.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-015-
     016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT