000
FXUS63 KFGF 220859
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening in southeast North Dakota. Near critical fire weather
  conditions for the Red Rive valley for parts of west central
  MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Upper level wave will continue to move east-southeast from
southern Saskatchewan this morning to near Winnipeg this evening
and then toward Duluth 12z Tuesday. Moisture ahead of this
feature is very limited as sfc trough moves into west fcst area
12z period and moves east thru the morning and early aftn.
Some low pops for a shower willl continue but not looking like
much. West winds behind this trough will increase with soundings
showing max winds aloft more in west central into south central
ND with west wind potential in the 25-35 mph in gusts into
southeast ND with sustained winds 20 mph. This combined with RH
values dropping to near 20 percent in east central and southeast
ND will lead to critical fire weather conditions based on North
Dakota Fire Weather Red Flag matrix. Clouds, a bit more moisture
will remain or move into northeast ND mid to late aftn as upper
wave moves to our north/northeast. Clouds and a few light rain
showers will spread southeast thru the area tonight exiting
west central MN Tuesday morning as upper wave goes by to our
east. A period of gusty north winds will occur Tuesday morning
with gusts 35 mph.

There will be steep lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km behind the cold
front along with low level dry air across the Highway 200
corridor points south. Precipitation will need to overcome the
dry air to reach the surface in southeastern North Dakota and
west central Minnesota.

We will see ridging making its way into the region mid week,
with warmer airmass moving in. Highs upper 50s to mid 60s
Wednesday and mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. Despite the warm
tempeatures on Thursday dew points will be higher, at least as
it appears now, with lowest RH values well above critical fire
weather values.

Upper level trough enters the western US Thursday setting the
stage for an active period for the Plains. One wave will bring
showers and a few t-storms into our area mainly Friday, with
additional waves after so thus due to timing differences we end
up with an extended period of POPs. Chances to see QPF of 0.25
inches over 48 hours (Thursday night through Saturday night) is
40-60% for areas south east of the Devils Lake Basin.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Winds are out of the south, but will shift toward the west by
mid morning around 13-15z. Sustained winds will increase by
early afternoon for DVL, GFK, and FAR. Sustained winds reach
15-20kts, with occasional gusts up to 30kts possible in the mid
to late afternoon hours. This is thanks to a cold front pushing
through the region. TVF and BJI will see weaker winds out of
the west. As the cold front moves through 13-15z slight rain
chances for GFK, TVF, and BJI. Other areas will see BKN VFR
ceilings. Skies briefly become SCT in the early afternoon before
another chance for rain in the mid to late afternoon for areas
along Highway 2. Winds diminish 02-05z, with MVFR ceilings
moving into the DVL at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

West winds will move into southeast and east central ND midday
and be present thru the evening. Strongest winds to be west of
our area, but sufficiently strong winds (sustained 20-25 mph)
and gusts 35 mph will occur into SE ND combined with a very dry
airmass in place with lowest RH values near 20 percent to bring
critical fire weather conditions from Eddy to Trail county ND
and south. In western Minnesota RH values just a tad higher and
winds also a tad lower and conditions look good for an SPS for
near critical fire weather from Norman county to Grant County
MN. This was coord with MPX/ABR for MN SPS and with BIS for RFW.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle/Spender
AVIATION...Spender
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle