Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201731
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1231 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

No significant changes for the mid-day update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Expecting a quiet and beautiful day across the region today.
Temps will be on the chilly side to start, with frost advisories
going until 8 AM across some of the the northwestern and eastern
zones. But temps will rise into the 70s under sunny skies and with
light winds. The area is under the influence of high pressure
currently as a ridge of high pressure extends from ND east through
northern MN. Aloft, weak NW flow exists with an upper ridge over
western ND. The upper ridge and surface high will drift slowly
eastward today. Meanwhile, the late May sun will work on
moderating temps across the region. As temps cool tonight, they`ll
have a longer ways to go...and with a bit of an increase in dew
points, believe another frost is unlikely. The closest sites in
the MOS guidance is Bemidji coming in at 38F and Wadena at 37F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Monday and Tuesday...
Upper level ridge building is forecast for Mon and Tue. Colder
air forecast to remain over eastern Canada this period as upper
ridge over western Canada expands east. Low level moisture
increases and low level jet increases by Wed which will increase
the threat for thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Long wave pattern retrogrades a bit through the period and also
weakens. Long wave ridge over ALTA backs into BC. Long wave trough
near Greenland backs into the Canadian archipelago. Pattern
remains split with northern stream over Canada and southern stream
over the states. The GFS and the ECMWF were in reasonable
agreement. The GFS was a little faster solution than the
ECMWF...especially in the northern stream. Precipitable water
expected to rise above an inch during much of the period. May
transition to northwest flow aloft on Fri or Sat. Upper ridge over
western Canada continues to expand east much of the period.

High temperatures were increased about a degree for Wed, Thu, and
Sat. Highs were decreased one to three degrees for Fri from
yesterdays package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

TAFs are VFR with clear skies, and will remain so throughout the
period. Some mid-level moisture will begin to move in from the
south by tomorrow morning, but should remain south of the TAF
sites and be above 3000 ft. Light and variable winds, although
KDVL is currently southwest at 10 kts. The light and variable will
continue for much of the period, with some steadying out of the
southeast towards tomorrow but still below 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR



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