Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
104 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Flurries and light snow now confined to the far north and far
southeastern areas of the CWA. Some fog persisting along the
Sheyenne Valley will begin to mix out as winds have switched back
to the east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Snow chances and amounts remain the main issue for the period.

Water vapor loop shows one shortwave trough over eastern SD moving
into MN, with a reinforcing shortwave digging towards ND from the
northwest. The weak inverted surface trough will continue to
slowly drift over the CWA today before washing out. A broad area
of lift will continue across the region today, with light snow
chances for much of the day. Snow falling currently is pretty
light, although with road temperatures dropping it is finally
starting to stick and make things slippery. Expecting maybe
another inch or two of accumulation, and there will be an impact
this morning of slick roads before temperatures warm back up this
afternoon into the low to mid 30s. Think that daylight hours will
allow melting on road surfaces so impacts later today should be
pretty minimal.

Tonight, high resolution models have snow tapering off in the
evening although some of the global runs keep some light QPF over
our area a bit longer. Think that whatever we get will not be much
at all so have POPs ending by midnight although a few flurries
could linger beyond that. Temps should stay in the 20s across much
of the forecast area with clouds and southerly winds starting to
pick up ahead of the next trough, but some teens will be possible
in the far eastern counties with a drier and cooler air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

12Z Wed - 12Z Fri

Upper level trough over northeast MT will exit the area Wed morning.
Low pops were added to parts of northern MN. Otherwise relatively
quiet period with northwest flow aloft over the area as upper ridge
builds over the Rockies.

Fri - Mon

Long wave trough off the Pacific northwest will extend from MAN to
the Desert southwest by Tue. Long wave ridge over the Rockies will
shift south and east to the Mid Atlantic states by Tue. Flow aloft
remains split with northern stream over Canada and southern stream
over the states.

Significant system is forecast for Fri and Sat. Precipitable water
rises near three quarters of an inch.

Little change to high temperatures from yesterday. Highs were
increased a degree or less for Fri and Sun. No change to Sat and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

IFR and MVFR CIGs in the valley and west will persist and spread
to the east to BJI this evening. For the overnight and the rest of
the period expecting little precipitation with CIGs in the 500ft
to 1500ft range with some fog possible. Winds to remain light out
of the south or southeast.




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