Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
700 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Changes were made to reduce pops for the overnight into Wednesday
based on coordination with WFO BIS. northeasterly dry air at the
sfc to 850 mb will keep any precipitation west of the fcst area
tonight and likely south of the forecast area on Wednesday. Though
did include a low pop right along the immediate border with SD and
into wcntrl MN.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Minimal impacts through Wednesday with potential for light
precipitation in southeast ND and west central MN. Did introduce
some slight chances for a light rain/snow mix, most likely falling
as drizzle, this evening in the Devils Lake basin. The high
resolution models are picking up on this activity as a result of
weak shortwave energy aloft. With such dry lower levels of the
atmosphere this evening, think this is more likely to be resolved
as mid to low level clouds but cannot rule out some light

Better, albeit not great, chances for a light rain/snow mix develop
late tonight and through Wednesday in far southeast ND and west
central MN, as a stronger upper wave brushes to our south.
Temperatures and presence (or lack) of ice will greatly influence
the precipitation type, and there is some uncertainty in this still,
but confidence is high in low QPF amounts. Any snow accumulations
look to be a half inch or less and would likely be confined to
grassy or already snow covered surfaces, as road temperatures will
likely stay well above freezing overnight and Wednesday. Thus
minimal impacts are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

As latest system moves well east of the forecast area Wed night the
next ridge will move overhead during the day on Thu. The majority of
the area should be dry from the end of the week through early next
week. Fri afternoon and evening will see temp rises begin to
accelerate but right now any warm advection rain would appear to be
restricted to extreme southeast North Dakota Fri night. A dry
weekend should follow, accompanied by the warmest temperatures of
the period, generally in the 50s on Sat as southerly winds generally
don`t offer the most robust boosts in surface temperatures. A more
southwesterly flow Sun will introduce potential high temps in the
60s to the western forecast area. The next chance for pcpn looks to
come very late in the period (depicted more by the GFS) as a frontal
boundary along the SD/ND state line brings rain chances to areas
south of Interstate 94.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions expected thru the pd with high and some mid level
cloud cover spreading east. Some MVFR cigs psbl in the far south
along the SD border Wednesday. Winds generally northeast 5 to 15
kts, though this evening some north-northwest winds 5 to 10 kts in
the RRV.




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