Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
943 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Issued at 943 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Clouds have been a bit slower to move out of the southern and
eastern CWA than expected, so adjusted forecast to account for
more sky cover in those areas. Made a few minor tweaks to
temperatures, but will continue to keep highs in the low to mid


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Water vapor loop showed an upper level trough over southern MAN and
another trough over northern MN. MN trough has increased winds
across the area as cooler/drier air moves into the area.

Radar indicated a few showers remaining over the far northeast zones
and will continue to shift east this morning.

East west cross section indicated a fair amount of drying aloft
today. Also model soundings indicate good mixing for today with
potential to mix down up to 25 knots. Decreased dewpoints for the
afternoon. Expect RHs to get into the upper twenties for this

Surface high pressure forecast to shift into the eastern Red River
Valley by 12Z Sun. Lowered temps for the eastern zones for Sat

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This period starts off with cool high pressure over the region, from
ND east to Lake Superior. An upper level ridge will exist over the
region as well. But the light winds and sunny skies will help
produce a stellar day on Sunday as highs will be generally in the
low 70s. The high moves off to the east on Monday...with upper flow
becoming more zonal. But expect another nice day as highs will be in
the mid 70s with a southerly breeze and sunny skies once again.

On Tuesday, an upper wave will approach from the northwest...and
moisture increases ahead of this feature resulting in some weak
instability over ND. A few thunderstorms appear to be possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening but the severe risk looks limited at this
time. On upper level low that`s been touring the
western U.S. since Monday will open up and move into Montana. Some
energy may drift through the Dakotas Wed/Wed night...bringing a few
showers and thunderstorms to the area. The upper wave and associated
surface low will slowly move through the Northern Plains on Thu and
Fri...keeping thunderstorms in the forecast both days. Temps for Wed-
Fri look to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. So, after a cool dry
start to the week, it appears to finish wetter and warmer. With the
thunderstorms looking to be a fair bet Thu/Fri...the risk of a few
severe thunderstorms looks possible as well given the moderate shear
and cape possible. Still too far out to focus on the details,


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

IFR conditions are roughly located east of line from near Oakes ND
to BDE. Clearing line was moving to the east about 25 knots. Rest of
the area had VFR conditions. Expect the IFR conditions to move east
out of the area by noon. Thereafter expect VFR conditions across the
area for today and tonight.




LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...JH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.