000
FXUS63 KFGF 110308
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal impacts are anticipated through the weekend. The
  probability for widespread hazardous weather is less than 10%
  this weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Adjusted POPs as we continue to see some widely scattered
showers and even a few thunderstorm cells moving across the
area. Impacts look minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across
the region this afternoon into evening as a quick moving system
moves east across the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. Dry
air in the lower levels will promote little rainfall/virga, with
most locations not seeing more than a tenth of an inch. Weak
instability is contributing to lightning in stronger convection,
under which can bring gusty winds to 40 mph.

Gusty winds are still expected Thursday, although the chance for
advisory-level criteria being met is less than 10% given lack of
mixing potential due to expectation of clouds and lingering
showers amidst weak cold air advection.

Upper ridging builds into the region Friday into the weekend
allowing a warming trend to develop. High confidence in 60s
across the region, with around 60% chance of 70s into the area.
Dry air will remain while this warming trend occurs, allowing
a medium chance (40%) for near-critical fire weather conditions
to develop Friday through Monday, although forecast winds under
20 mph will be main limiting factor to mitigating these
conditions. It is worth mentioning that guidance from HDWI is
highlighting some low but present values in the 95th percentile
on Monday as the chance for increased winds becomes higher with
an incoming system. This would signal the potential for critical
fire weather conditions to develop (currently around 10% chance
of occurring) should the aforementioned system slow its precip into
our area, while spreading its increased wind field into our
area.

Getting into next week, there continues to be a signal for
widespread rainfall, with a wetting rain of at least 0.25 inches
of QPF likely (60% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Scattered showers moving through the TAF sites, with a few
isolated thunderstorms that were not affecting any airports
until just after hitting send and then a cell popped up just
northwest of KFAR. Convective cells will produce some lighting
and gusty winds for the next hour or so before settling back
down to more VCSH with only a bit of light rain. All sites
currently VFR but some MVFR ceilings coming in later tonight and
into tomorrow at least at KGFK and the MN TAF sites, less
confident in KDVL and KFAR. Winds will remain out of the north
to northwest with periodic gusts above 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR