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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232126
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
226 PM MST Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler and breezy weather Wednesday will give
way to cooler, unsettled conditions for the second half of the
week. There`s a chance of showers Thursday and again late Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Rest of Today and Tomorrow...Ridging overhead
today is allowing for warming conditions. A closed off low to the
west is starting to increase winds today, but will be more
apparent tomorrow as winds will be strong enough to limit heating
then. Gusts for most should be 25-35 mph Wednesday.

As the low approaches later Wednesday into Thursday, moisture
will star to advect into the region. This will result in a notable
increase in RHs for the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
Shower chances will start to increase early Thursday morning,
peaking with afternoon instability Thursday afternoon. Regardless
of instability, most will receive less than a wetting rain as
moisture availability won`t be that great. Winds will also be
peaking Thursday with areas immediately northeast of higher
terrain experiencing gusts of 30-40 mph. Obviously no RFW concern
with the RH jump and moisture.

Quickly following behind this mid-week system will be a trough
that will enter the region Friday night into Saturday. Before it
will be a brief window of dry weather. Afternoon RHs will take a
dive between systems as winds remain elevated. This will make
Friday afternoon a bit more of a highlighted Fire Weather concern
before more moisture enters the region Friday night.

Cooler weather that arrives before and with the second system
early Saturday will contribute to some high elevation snowfall,
with snow levels remaining pretty high besides first thing
Saturday morning when snow levels could slip to 7000 feet.
Otherwise, any accumulating snowfall will be closer to and above
8000 feet. Greater moisture availability is expected Saturday, so
more widespread shower coverage is expected. Early morning
precipitation with the main front, combined with afternoon
instability driving additional shower activity primarily along
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains will result in precipitation
amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch for many, perhaps even
exceeding 3 tenths in some more favored upslope areas.

Following Saturday`s system, zonal flow sets up over the region
with moderating temperatures and lighter winds.


&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/18Z through Wednesday 24/18Z...VFR
conditions. Surface wind SSW 15-25kts gusting 30-35kts through 02Z,
then variable less than 5-10kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/18Z through Friday 26/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-SHSN and a few thunderstorms from around
09Z Thursday to 03Z Friday, mainly NW of a KPAN-KRQE line. Localized
MVFR in showers. Surface wind SSW 15-25kts gusting 30-35kts in the
daytime, decreasing to 5-15kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday through Thursday...Dry and mild
conditions continue Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures Thursday
with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Wetting rains
are unlikely. Southwest winds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph each
day.

Friday through Sunday...Cool temperatures continue through Saturday
before a warming trend begins Sunday. Mainly dry through Friday
afternoon, with a better chance of rain and high elevation snow
showers Friday night and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms also
possible. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts from 30-40 mph
Friday, shifting to westerly gusting 30-35 mph Saturday and 20-25
mph Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff