000
FXUS63 KFSD 191711
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds with gusts to around 40 mph expected today.

- Cold morning lows below freezing are expected again Saturday
  morning and Sunday morning.

- Moderate to high (40-70+%) chances for rain return late Sunday
  night into Monday. At this time amounts appear to be on the
  lighter side with only a 30-50% chance for more than a tenth
  of an inch in southwest MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

After a cold start to the morning, strong west to northwest flow is
expected today with relatively deep mixing. Model soundings showing
maximum wind speeds in the mid to upper 30 knots in the mixed layer,
with the strongest winds most likely near and north of I-90. Right
now not anticipating a wind advisory, but should be close to a low
end advisory with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible. Also noted in the
soundings is some weak instability at the top of the mixed layer,
again better north of I-90. May see some brief light rain or snow
showers during peak heating this afternoon, but not anticipating any
accumulations.

Winds will remain on the stronger side tonight, but with a cold air
mass temperatures will still fall below freezing in most locations.

While the area remains in cool northwest flow on Saturday the winds
will not be as strong which will help in making the highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s not feel quite so chilly. With lighter winds
heading into Sunday morning as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds into the area, a more widespread hard freeze will be possible
with lows more in the mid to upper 20s in most locations.

A fairly quick moving system will move through later Sunday night
into Monday. While some precipitation is possible, it should remain
on the lighter side. The better chances will likely be off to the
northeast. The probabilities for a tenth of an inch of rain or more
is about 30-50% across parts of southwest MN. Outside of the
precipitation chances it will be a windy and mild day with gusts
around 35 mph and highs in the mid and upper 60s.

Once this system passes confidence is a bit lower as models diverge
on some weaker waves mid week as well as the potential for a bit
stronger wave late in the week into next weekend. Overall
temperatures will be around normal with lows of 35 to 45 and highs
55 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Taking a look
at satellite imagery, a robust cumulus field has developed from
the I-90 corridor northwards mostly due the ULL over the Great
Lakes Region and should continues to spread southwards through
this evening. There is a small chance (<20%) that a few
sprinkles to light flurries could fall out of the stratus this
afternoon as better lift enters the region. Otherwise, breezy
northwesterly winds will continue across the area with gusts
between 35-45 mph possible through this evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for SDZ040-055-056-
     062.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-013-
     014.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Gumbs