Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 171108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
608 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A much quieter day in store, as low pressure over northern MO and
southern IA will continue to pull away from the region. Even so,
cloud cover looks to hang tough over much of our area for today, and
because of that, temperatures are not going to make much of a
recovery with highs remaining in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds will
only slowly thin out tonight, with lows mid and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Upper level ridging builds into the region on Sunday, providing for
a milder day with highs in the 40s, though nearing 50 degrees
through the lower MO River corridor. Models are in pretty decent
agreement with regard to the Sunday night/Monday system, with
another upper level low taking a path similar to this past system,
albeit shifted slightly farther to the south. Because of that, most
of the precipitation with that feature will remain south of our
area, with a bigger impact being felt with a secondary shortwave
sliding across the region later on Monday into Tuesday. Thermal
profiles will support either rain or snow for that time period, and
with highs on Monday and Tuesday nearing 40 degrees, rain will mix
with the snow during the daytime hours.

With the departure of that system, Wednesday and Thursday will be
dry and milder as upper level ridging once again builds into the
central CONUS. Will see a return of rain and snow toward the end of
next week as an upper level trough nudges eastward into the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

MVFR ceilings are prevalent across the area, though breaks in
this lower stratus deck allowing for brief VFR conditions. With
the extent of the MVFR conditions currently and persistence of
this moisture layer in the forecast soundings, remained fairly
pessimistic in this TAF issuance.

Somewhat drier low level flow expected to allow ceilings to
improve in areas northeast of the TAF locations, especially over
southwest Minnesota, and occasional breaks in the MVFR stratus may
work into KFSD this afternoon as well. However, did not account
for in the TAFs due to the difficulty in timing.

Stratus height expected to lower toward the low end of MVFR range,
or even into IFR range, late in this TAF period.




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