Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 251121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
621 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

System moving through Nebraska gradually shifting southeast and will
take precipitation with it early this morning and clouds by mid to
late morning. Behind this system mild air and light winds are
expected with highs in the 60s. As high pressure at the surface
drifts southeast a southwest flow will develop in central SD and
could provide a touch of enhanced mixing. So bumped highs a degree
or two and lowered dew points a little, but for now the fire weather
concerns should not be high as winds will remain light.

A cool night ahead as winds turn south and weaken ahead of a weak
system. This system will bring an increase in clouds late tonight
and a very small chance for showers. Low level dry air will be a
challenge to precipitation development but sprinkles and some light
showers will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Lows
should be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A cooler and windy day is expected on Thursday behind the exiting
system. North winds will gust to 35 mph in the afternoon and dew
points will dry out. Not quite warm enough or dry enough to warrant
a significant fire weather concern, but will be a day to watch out
for. High generally in the 50s and lower 60s.

Friday will see any residual cool air in the low levels flushed out
as a westerly low level component develops. Will likely be a touch
breezy but with a lot of sunshine and temperatures in the 60s it
will not be as noticeable.

Strong upper level ridging will spread across the Northern Plains
Saturday into Sunday and provide some welcome warmer weather to the
area. Saturday will be the cooler of the two days as some low level
cooler air erodes through the day. Still anticipating highs into the
60s with winds generally below 15 mph. A much stronger southerly
gradient will develop on Sunday with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible.
Depending upon the speed of the return of the low level moisture a
potentially dangerous fire weather day will be possible with the
current forecast of 30 to 40 percent afternoon relative humidity.

Sunday night into Tuesday the upper level ridge begins to break down
and shift east as a trough deepens over the western United States.
This should bring a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms as
pieces of energy lift north and interact with the low level
boundary. Right now models are hinting at enough instability to
support isolated severe storms but still too early to be overly
concerned. Barring any daytime showers and thunderstorms highs
should be in the 70s Sunday through Tuesday with lows in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Sunny skies and light winds prevail during the daylight hours
today. This evening, high clouds will begin to filter into the
region ahead of a cold front which arrives Thursday morning.
Little precipitation is expected with this front, but a wind
shift, gusts to 25 kt, and mid-level cloud decks are expected
Thursday morning.




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