198
FXUS64 KFWD 080619
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
119 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Morning/

A warm front will continue to move northward this morning through
the Southern Plains, pulling a moisture rich warm sector
northward through North Texas. A dryline remains positioned across
West Texas at this hour and will advance eastward through the day.
Today`s commute will be quite warm and muggy as North and Central
Texas find themselves entrenched within 60 and 70 degree
dewpoints and a deck of low- level morning stratus.

Forcing for ascent will be on the increase across the region today
in response to both a shortwave trough rounding the periphery of the
upper low and an upper level jet streak taking shape overhead. Down
towards the surface our resident dryline will continue to move
eastward this afternoon, eventually ending up just west of the I-35
corridor. The Pacific front/dryline will become the focus for
convective development during the late afternoon and evening
hours, with CAM guidance showing a blossoming of showers and
storms near and east of I-35. Severe storms are likely at some
point this afternoon with the greatest threat expected to be along
and east of I-35 into our northeast counties. Forecast soundings
show the environment in this area will feature 4000-5000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep layer shear, and >8 C/km lapse rates.
Any storm that forms in this environment will quickly be able to
become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary
threats. Initial discrete storms off the dryline may have an
increased tornado threat as low level winds will be slightly
backed. We`ll need to closely watch this potential throughout the
day. Otherwise, the overall tornado threat remains on the lower
end as low level wind profiles are generally weak, but if winds
start to trend more backed to the southeast, then the tornado
threat may increase.

Any lingering storms should exit to our east during the early
overnight hours into Thursday. Meanwhile a cold front will
continue to move south through the Central Plains as the
aforementioned shortwave ejects to the northeast, bringing
northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures along behind it.
Ample moisture and instability within the warm sector will allow
for another shot at showers and storms both along and ahead of the
frontal boundary during the day Thursday. The regional
environment will once again feature ample MLCAPE, deep layer
shear, and steep lapse rates capable of large hail and damaging
winds. The tornado threat remains low due to weak low level
winds. The greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday remains
near the I-20 corridor and south into Central Texas. Long,
straight hodographs and >8 C/km lapse rates across the Metroplex
and south will lead to an increased potential for very large hail
to occur during this time.

The front will finally exit the region closer to daybreak Friday,
ending all rain chances across our CWA. Left behind will be
northerly winds and cooler morning lows in the 50s and 60s. There
is potential for patchy fog on Thursday morning, impacting the
commute with lowered visibility.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/Thursday and Beyond/

Weak surface low pressure will shift across the Ohio River Valley
Thursday with a trailing cold front extending into portions of
East and Central Texas. This frontal boundary will serve as a
focus for scattered thunderstorm development Thursday
afternoon/evening (not everyone will see storms!) as it gradually
pushes toward the Texas Gulf Coast. 7.5-8.0 degreeC/km mid-level
lapse rates atop a very moist airmass marked by surface dewpoints
in the low to mid-70s will lead to strong instability ahead of the
frontal boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE by Thursday afternoon
across much of Central Texas. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear
will allow for organized storm structures capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow will
likely keep the tornado threat low. The greatest storm chances
will remain along/south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon
into early Thursday evening until the cold front finally pushes
out of our forecast area late Thursday evening. We will also need
to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding, especially since the bulk of this rainfall is expected
to fall over already water-logged areas across Central and East
Texas.

Northerly low-level flow behind the frontal boundary will usher in
a drier, cooler airmass, allowing for a nice start to the weekend
with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the
mid-50s to low 60s expected Friday and Saturday.

Onshore flow will return to North and Central Texas by Sunday
beginning a gradual increase in low-level moisture and cloud
cover. Isolated to scattered rain chances could return to the
region by early Sunday across our west and south on the nose of
this stronger warm/moist advection, especially as a mid-level
disturbance approaches from the west. An active subtropical jet
overtop sufficient moisture will keep at least daily low to medium
chances for rain through the midweek period across North and
Central Texas. Limited instability will likely keep the severe
threat on the lower end through at least Monday, but we will need
to assess this potential further as we get closer to the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Southerly winds will continue through the morning hours as a surge
in MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus blankets the TAF sites
overnight. Probabilities for IFR have lowered at ACT, but there is
still a decent signal in guidance so have kept a mention of IFR as
a TEMPO from 08-11Z. By the afternoon, cigs will have lifted to
VFR and winds will have veered more southwesterly ahead of an
incoming front. Scattered storms are expected to form near the
I-35 corridor late this afternoon off of a dryline/cold front and
move east, but confidence in exact location of the dryline is
still a bit uncertain. Have introduced a VCTS from 23-03Z for this
possibility and will update for any direct terminal impacts in
further issuances. The front will shift winds to the north-
northeast at D10 by 03Z tonight, while ACT remains southerly
throughout the TAF period. Another deck of MVFR stratus will
impact the TAF sites near daybreak Thursday morning.

Prater

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  81  63  79  60 /  10  40  20   0   5
Waco                71  82  63  76  59 /   5  40  20   0   5
Paris               66  81  60  77  55 /  40  30  20   0   0
Denton              65  80  60  77  57 /  10  30  20   0   0
McKinney            66  80  61  77  57 /  20  30  20   0   0
Dallas              69  81  63  78  60 /  20  40  20   0   0
Terrell             69  81  61  77  57 /  20  40  30   0   0
Corsicana           72  82  63  79  59 /  20  40  30   0   0
Temple              70  84  64  77  59 /   0  30  20   0   5
Mineral Wells       65  79  60  77  56 /   5  30  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$