National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231940
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/This Afternoon through Wednesday night/

Stratus across portions of Central and North Texas late this
morning will continue to lift and scatter with vigorous daytime
mixing, leaving a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. Temperatures
will warm into the middle 70s to lower 80s across all but the far
west where middle 80s will be more common.

A strong cap of warm air aloft will hinder storm formation
through the afternoon but a few storms may manage to develop
across the Big Country along an eastward mixing dryline.
Therefore, we will maintain some low PoPs across the far western
zones. If any storm does manage to develop, it will have a
potential to produce large hail and damaging winds.

The center of surface low pressure will move to near Wichita
Falls this evening, allowing a weak cold front to ooze across the
Red River. There is a low chance for a storm or two to develop
along the front tonight but a lack of significant large scale
lift will keep the cap in place. The front is progged to stall
near the Red River on Wednesday and may provide the necessary lift
for a few showers and storms through the night with the best
chances across the northeast zones on the eastern periphery of a
building ridge aloft.

Low clouds will return overnight, remaining in place for much of
the morning Wednesday. Increasing low level warm air advection
will keep overnight lows in the 60s. Afternoon sun and increasing
southerly flow will allow highs to warm into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. Wednesday night will be humid and mild with lows in
the middle and upper 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

The latter half of week through the weekend will be very warm,
humid and unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms.

A strong low level warm air advection pattern will remain in place
Thursday ahead of a deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest.
Subtle shortwave energy emerging out of the base of the main
trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms across the
northwest and northern zones through the day Thursday while the
remainder of the forecast area will stay capped and rain-free. The
only exception will be a few warm air advection sprinkles or
light showers. Storm chances will increase Thursday night once the
upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains, dragging a dryline
and weak front into the western CWA. Some storms may become
strong to severe, especially across the western zones where shear
and instability will be the most favorable. Storms will progress
eastward across the region Friday with the passing trough axis.
There is a medium chance for strong to severe storms on Friday,
especially east of the I-35 corridor during the afternoon where
the air will be the most unstable. There will be a lull in
precipitation Friday night, but another upper low will move
quickly on heels of the departing system, bringing rain/storm
chances to the region just in time for the weekend. This second
system will follow a similar track as the late week system, with
storm chances increasing from west to east Saturday and decreasing
in similar fashion on Sunday with the arrival of a weak cold
front. Some strong to severe storms will be possible given the
projected shear and instability. The cold front will likely stall
across the CWA Sunday night through Monday, warranting at least
some low PoPs. Rain chances will temporarily end or decrease
significantly Tuesday with brief ridging aloft, but the active
split flow pattern will likely persist through the end of April.
The progressive nature of these system should keep the overall
flood threat low, but recent heavy rainfall and some rivers
currently near flood stage could result in some localized
flooding issues.

Temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will be near or slightly
above seasonal normals with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
middle 80s. Lows will stay generally in the 60s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/18Z TAF/

MVFR stratus will continue to lift and scatter late this morning
with VFR expected at all TAF sites this afternoon. A few storms
may initiate on the dryline late this afternoon but any storm
that develops will be stay well west of the TAF sites. Stratus
will return overnight, reaching Waco between 08Z and 09Z and the
Metroplex TAF sites shortly after that. A slightly weaker low
level jet may actually allow ceilings to temporarily fall below
1000 ft for a few hours just after sunrise. Although ceilings will
begin to lift by late morning, deeper moisture will keep MVFR
ceilings in place through midday. Storm chances Wednesday should
stay closer to the Red River near a stalled front but impacts at
both the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts will be possible.

A south wind will remain in the 12 to 17 knot range this
afternoon, falling between 7 and 13 knots tonight/Wednesday
morning. Some higher gusts around 25 knots are possible,
especially this afternoon.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  65  81  68  81 /   0   5  10  10  10
Waco                77  65  81  68  81 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               76  61  77  64  79 /   0   5  30  30  30
Denton              79  62  79  66  80 /   0  10  20  20  10
McKinney            77  63  78  67  79 /   0   5  20  20  10
Dallas              80  65  81  69  82 /   0   5  10  10  10
Terrell             76  63  79  66  80 /   0   5  10  20  10
Corsicana           77  65  81  67  82 /   0   0  10  10   5
Temple              76  64  81  67  82 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       82  62  81  67  83 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$