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000
FXUS64 KFWD 181840
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

An active afternoon is in store for some of us across North and
Central Texas as a fairly decent cold front continues its way
across the region. As of 1 pm, surface analysis shows the front
entering the northwestern zones from Montague to Stephens
counties. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are still
expected to develop this afternoon and evening as the front moves
through. While the overall timing of the storms hasn`t changed
much from previous forecasts, some of the latest high-res models
are pushing storm initialization closer to 5-6 pm and perhaps
just east of the I-35 corridor. Based on the latest ACARs
soundings, it looks like the environment is still capped, but
surface heating through the afternoon should help with buoyancy.
There is a potential that storms won`t develop or remain very
isolated until the the front moves east of I-35 into East Texas.
Not everyone will see showers/storms as the front moves through
their location. With very high instability in place, IF storms are
able to develop, they will be capable of becoming severe with
large hail as the main threat. Very large hail (up to 2.5 inches
in diameter) can`t be ruled out with some of the more intense
supercells. The threat for damaging winds will be there as well,
especially with some of the storm clusters. The tornado threat is
low, but we can`t completely discard a brief spin-up with any
bowing segment. The good news is that the threat for storms and
severe weather for any location is brief as the front steadily
pushes eastward through this evening.

Most of the activity should be east of us after midnight, but
breezy northerly winds will continue through tomorrow morning.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected on Friday with high
temperatures staying in the 60s and 70s under mostly cloudy
skies.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 248 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/
Update:
/Friday night through Wednesday/

The long term portion of the forecast has not changed much over
the past few days and the detailed discussion below covers the
specifics very well. We still anticipate an extended period of
rain and storms this weekend with the highest rain chances on
Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will still be the primary hazard.
The rain will come to an end Sunday but will return to the
forecast around the middle of next week.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Through Mid Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
be slowly drifting or stalled near or just north of the Hill
Country as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper-level flow.
Moisture advection overtop of the shallow frontal surface should
quickly yield widespread dense cloud cover early Friday. By the
afternoon, an approaching weak shortwave trough embedded within
the zonal flow aloft...in combination with the established
isentropic ascent regime...will lead to isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the 850mb
front, which is expected to still be draped across North Texas
(near the Red River). Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase
Friday night in response to increasing large scale lift associated
with another weak shortwave shifting across Central/South Texas.

While buoyancy will be somewhat limited, there should be
sufficient elevated instability for convective elements/embedded
thunderstorms capable of producing small hail late Friday into
early Saturday. With PWAT values near or exceeding the 90th
percentile of the daily climatological mean, locally heavy
rainfall may lead to flooding impacts on Saturday, especially
wherever higher convective rain rates materialize. The prevailing
drought and drier antecedent conditions in the southwest portions
of our forecast area will likely limit most flood concerns in this
area. However, ponding or minor nuisance flooding cannot be
completely ruled out. Conversely, given the degree of soil
saturation in areas east of the I-35 corridor and current
reservoir conditions, rapid surface runoff and minor river
flooding issues are likely to emerge this weekend. In general, 1.5
to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated higher totals
possible. There is a 30-40% chance that total accumulated
rainfall exceeds 3 inches in a few different areas across North
and Central Texas.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave
should bring an end to rain chances by Sunday afternoon with drier
conditions prevailing through early next week. In contrast to the
unseasonably hot temperatures in the short term period,
temperatures will fall from near/slightly below normal to as much
as 15-20 degrees cooler than 1991-2020 averages by Sunday. This is
due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front in
combination with rain chances and extensive cloud cover. The
surface high will shift east over the Lower Mississippi Valley
Monday, allowing for onshore flow to return. The return of
southerly winds and ample sunshine early next week will lead to a
quick warm up with highs back into the 70s and lower 80s by
Tuesday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorms chances this afternoon. Breezy conditions
through Friday morning.

VFR cigs have returned to most sites as a cold front approaches
the DFW Metroplex. Showers and storms are still expected to
develop along the front during the afternoon and evening hours.
Based on the most recent high-res guidance, a few storms may
develop near the DFW sites between 21-23Z, and 01-03Z at KACT. To
account for this potential, we introduced a TEMPO TSRA for all
the sites. This activity should be east of the sites in the
evening as the front continues to move east/southeast. Gusty
northerly winds are also expected behind the front, staying breezy
through early Friday morning.

Another round of low cigs is forecast to arrive early Friday
morning with MVFR ceilings prevailing through much of the day.
Otherwise, surface winds will remain from the northeast around
10-15kt.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  70  59  65  50 /  20   5  80  90  90
Waco                59  73  62  70  51 /  30   5  50  80 100
Paris               54  67  54  59  48 /  40  10  80  90  80
Denton              52  68  55  62  47 /  10   5  80  90  90
McKinney            54  68  56  63  48 /  20   5  80  90  90
Dallas              57  71  59  64  51 /  20   5  80  90  90
Terrell             56  70  57  65  49 /  40   5  70  90 100
Corsicana           59  72  61  70  51 /  30   5  50  80 100
Temple              60  74  63  73  51 /  40   5  40  80 100
Mineral Wells       53  68  56  64  47 /  10   5  80  90  90

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$