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000
FXUS65 KGGW 091545
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
945 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Updated this morning to account for instability showers that may
dot much of the area this afternoon/early this evening, increasing
pops. Rest of forecast looked good. TFJ

Previous Discussion:
KEY MESSAGES:
- A quick moving clipper will generate a period of breezy
  conditions and a few showers today through Wednesday.
- Temperatures warming into the weekend.
- Cooler and unsettled weather for next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Weak shortwave sliding through the nearly zonal flow across
Montana. This will push a low pressure system along the Canadian
border. The increased pressure gradient and winds aloft will
create gusty winds through Wednesday, with winds being stronger
behind the cold front passage overnight as cold air advection
increases. With the unstable airmass, a few showers are also
possible with the system.

Later in the week, warmer and drier conditions are expected as an
upper ridge builds into the region through the weekend. This ridge
will begin to break down early next week with a cooler and more
unsettled pattern developing.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Pattern developing for the next few days is very favorable for
gusty winds across the region, and supports high confidence of
winds reaching 20mph or more for a prolonged period over Fort Peck
Lake. Since the ice is now cleared, will issue a Lake Wind
Advisory for this afternoon through Wednesday evening, even
through there will be short periods of lighter winds.

There remains some uncertainty in the exact temperature trend
over the weekend with the developing upper ridge. The highest
confidence in the high temperatures will be Friday and Saturday,
with the temperature spread increasing for Sunday and Monday. This
is also reflected in the wide spread of the 500mb ensemble
clusters for early next week, with a 50/50 split between two
possible solutions.


&&

.AVIATION...
Updated: 1540z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

DISCUSSION:
Pleasant flying conditions are expected with high clouds
departing the region this morning. Isolated showers are possible
this afternoon that increase in coverage overnight. Briefly lower
flight conditions are possible. TFJ


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow