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000
FXUS65 KGGW 162006
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
206 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder weather begins tonight and lasts into the early weekend.

- Strong northwest winds will keep a Lake Wind Advisory in effect
  through Thursday evening.

- A few isolated rain and snow showers will be possible over the
  next few days, QPF amounts are expected to be low.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cold front continues to push through the area ushering in the
return to temperatures more typical of early to mid March over the
next few days. With strong winds continuing with the cold air
advection a Lake Wind Advisory will remain in effect until
Thursday evening for the strong northwest winds. An area of
precipitation will drop south across the Canadian border tonight
bringing scattered rain and snow showers across mainly the
northern zones through early Friday morning. Chance for rain or
snow ranges from 20-60%, with QPF generally between a trace to
maybe a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border.

A ridge builds over the weekend bringing a warming trend. There is
some signal of an upper level Low riding down the ridge and
bringing a few showers to the region, but model solutions trended
drier today with this solution than they did 24 hours ago.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence on high winds through Thursday. Medium to low
confidence on POPs and amounts. Medium to high confidence for
upcoming ridge over the weekend, very low confidence on next
system moving in Sunday night into Monday.

-Bernhart


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR possible early Wednesday morning

DISCUSSION: Cold front moving through will continue to keep the
winds elevated as well as drop temperatures from 10 to 20 degrees
lower than today`s maximums. An area of rain and snow drops south
from Canada tonight but precipitation will be isolated to
scattered in nature with little to no accumulations expected.

WIND: NW 15-25kts, gusts 30-40kts

-Bernhart



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Northern Valley
and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern
Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River
Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow