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000
FXUS63 KGID 142058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southeast winds (gusts to 45 MPH) through Monday

- Scattered thunderstorms Monday evening through Monday night.
  Some of these are expected to be severe. Hail is the primary
  threat, with some threat for damaging wind and tornadoes as
  well.

- Continued rain/thunderstorm chances on Tuesday, with strong
  northwest winds (gusts 50+ MPH) through Tuesday night.

- Cooler late this week into the weekend. Sub-freezing low
  temperatures are likely, especially Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The main concern in this forecast period is a strong upper low
that will bring a variety of weather hazards to the area Monday
through Tuesday.

This system will cross the Rockies late tonight into Monday
morning, with moisture returning ahead of it through the day on
Monday. By afternoon, southeasterly surface winds of 25 to 35
MPH are likely, with gusts up to 45 MPH.

As temperatures climb into the 80s and moisture continues to
return MLCAPE values will climb over 2000 J/kg across much of
the forecast area during the afternoon. Effective shear of
30-40kts will be sufficient for supercell structures, and CAMs
show a few storms developing near the warm front in the 6-8pm
timeframe. The favored initiation point is in our north and
northeast. Most convection SHOULD hold off until at least 6pm.
That said, there still quite a bit of uncertainty on mesoscale
details/timing at this time.

This initial round of storms will push to the north/northeast
relatively quickly, with additional rounds of thunderstorms
developing as better upper forcing arrives from the west. Again,
details remain uncertain on exact placement, but CAMs indicate a
broken line of thunderstorms pushing west to east across
portions of the area late into the overnight (roughly 10pm to
3am). Large hail and damaging wind will be the main threat, but
a few tornadoes will remain possible. This is not a
climatologically favorable time for tornadoes, but the threat
will continue as long as storms can stay based near the surface.
Increasingly strong low-level shear may push STP values over 4 (at
least on a localized basis) ahead of this line.

This round of convection pushes to our east on Tuesday, though
additional rain and thunderstorms remain possible underneath and
west of the low. The main severe threat appears to be safely to
our east, but there will be enough remaining instability for a
few storms to become strong to marginally severe.

Winds turn to the northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gusts
over 50 MPH appear possible, but it looks unlikely that we will
reach high-wind criteria at this time.

Beyond Tuesday, no changes were made to the NBM initialization.
The next chance for precipitation is Wednesday night. This will
be mainly rain, but some snow cannot be ruled out in northern
zones as colder air moves in.

Speaking of colder air, temperatures Thursday through Sunday
are expected to be 5-15 degrees below our climatological
normals. The coldest day appears to be Saturday, with highs only
in the upper 40s and 50s and overnight lows potentially dipping
into the 20s for some.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are favored to continue through this TAF period.
Mostly clear skies are expected through tonight, with increasing
midlevel clouds through the day on Monday.

Easterly winds turn more southeasterly tonight, and increase on
Monday. Gusts up to 30kts are possible by midday Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2024

Winds today have been a touch higher than expected, resulting
fairly widespread near-critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon.

As mentioned above, southeasterly winds will increase on
Monday, with gusts solidly in the 35-45 MPH range through the
afternoon. Sufficient moisture will return to most of the region
to avoid a critical fire threat, but the dryline may push into
our far west. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on its
location. Areas west of the dryline could see easily see
humidity in the low teens for several hours, but areas to the
east may struggle to dip much below 35 percent. Because of this,
we opted for a Fire Weather Watch rather than going with a
Warning, and hopefully it becomes more clear whether to upgrade
or cancel based the 00Z guidance tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2024

Record Warm Low Temperatures
Tuesday April 16th

GRAND ISLAND
Previous record: 54 (2006)
Current forecast: 52 at 11:59 PM Tues night

HASTINGS
Previous record: 57 (2016)
Current forecast: 51 at 11:59 PM Tues night

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ082.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels
CLIMATE...Mangels