621
FNUS73 KGRR 080815
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Lawler Rx...Fort Custer National Gaurd
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
415 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Expecting a good amount of sun and mixing today along with a
breeze to move the fire. Rain showers should hold off until
well after sunset. The Haines Index as computed for this area
will be on the borderline between 5 and 6.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........69 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 10 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the evening.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5100 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........West 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....560 /good/ at ignition. Max...880 /excellent/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........6      2      4      3      48     72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............69     72     73     72     68     62
RH..............51     41     38     39     49     62
20 ft wind......W 13   W 14   W 13   NW 10  N 8    NE 6
20 ft wind gust.18     21     18     16     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   5000   5000   3700   600    400
Mixing wind.....W 16   W 17   W 16   W 12   N 8    N 9
Haines index....5      6      6      6      5      5
Smoke disprsl...560    870    810    430    40     40

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    toward daybreak. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    toward daybreak.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 8
                    to 14 mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms toward
                    daybreak.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 8 to 9 mph shifting to the east 12 to 17
                    mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....170 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    30 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain likely.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 12 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 18 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....260 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    620 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413357.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL osterlandlee@gmail.com