915
FXUS62 KGSP 130533
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressures approach from the west, moisture increases to start
the week and rain returns to our area Monday afternoon and evening.
Rain and thunder are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by
a brief period of dry conditions on Thursday. Another low
pressure arrives for next weekend bringing more rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM: Thickening cirrus spreading in from the west may be
slowly the nocturnal temp trend a bit, so have blended in CONSshort
with latest obs to bring temps up. Given the expected cloud cover,
bumped min temps up a deg or two. But overall, no major changes with
this update.

Otherwise...ridge axis now situated over the lower MS Valley with
attendant sfc high extending over the Cumberland Plateau. These
features will build east tonight, and sfc winds will come around
to the NE across the Piedmont. Sfc/upper low in the Plains will
activate a warm front to our southwest overnight, but it looks
pretty unlikely any of that precip will develop into our area
in the morning. PoP onset has been delayed compared to previous
fcsts, with dry air to overcome and the lift being relatively
weak. Midlevel clouds however will increase in numbers overnight,
but slow enough that decent radiational cooling still should occur,
so still went with bias-corrected guidance blend similar to what
has worked well in recent nights. Of particular note, the pattern
still may permit eventual development of in-situ CAD but see no
need to expect that will begin tonight, without precip.

Warm front will shift northward over the sfc high in the morning,
possibly resulting in light precip developing near the Blue Ridge
Escarpment and in NE GA by noon. Abundant alto/cirrus cloud
cover will be in place but low clouds are appreciably slower
to develop. Guidance mostly holds off with QPF until after 18z,
with saturation occurring from the top down. Still favor precip
chances no better than chance range for the majority of the CWA,
the exception in the Escarpment/GA areas where saturation appears
to occur earliest; those areas will see likely PoP mention by late
afternoon. Thus, formation of CAD probably will not be until after
peak heating, but the cloud cover will impact highs especially SW
of I-26 where they should be in place more or less all day. Lack of
CAD also suggested by model consensus for winds going southerly
across the CWA by late morning. We end up with highs several
degrees below climo in the SW, but near or slightly above normal
in the sunnier NE. Any convection afforded by the upglide likely
will be too shallow to result in thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: We remain on track for the likihood of
dreary sensible wx conds Monday night as a period of moist llvl
upglide flow expands atop of wedge-like pattern.  Widespread low
overcast, rain, drizzle and fog is on tap. Energy rounding the base
of potent Ohio Valley upper low will eject NE into the region on
Tuesday.  Along with an associated slug of deeper moisture, showers
are expected to be widespread.  It remains probable that the wedge
front, present along the SE fringes of the cwfa to start off the
day, will be able to erode, probably uncovering a small amount of
positive SBCAPE values SE of I-85 Tuesday afternoon. Within the
robust deep shear there remains the possibility of svr tstm
development along and SE of retreating/dissipating wedge front into
Tuesday evening.   The cwfa is progged to be within a cleaner warm
sector environment on Wednesday, all beneath cyclonically curved
flow aloft thanks to the lingering, but departing upper low axis. As
temperatures warm to seasonable mid-May levels, the atmosphere will
becoming moderately unstable.  Coverage of diurnally enhanced tstms
should becoming numerous, especially in Western NC where the flow
and forcing will be greater.  There should exist enough shear to
promote a few severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: Save for the small chance for isolated
ridgetop forced showers, we are expecting an essentially suppressed
atmosphere on Thursday as upper ridge axis translates atop the SE
CONUS.  Lower elevations will warm into the lower 80s.  The next
slug of southern stream deeper moisture and energy remains progged
to quickly advect into the cwfa on Friday.  The latest medium range
guidance is in decent enough agree with respect to the mass fields
on Friday with considerable convective response, so the inherited
sensible wx featuring numerous diurnally enhanced thunderstorms will
remain as is. Less than usual confidence exists regarding the
specifics for next weekend but with the wavy pattern likely to
linger along with spokes of southern stream energy rippling
eastward, above climo pops will be featured each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cirrus will continue to steadily thicken
with altocu moving in during the morning and low VFR stratocu cigs
by afternoon. Light and variable to light NE wind early this morning
becomes SE by late morning then S for the afternoon. Low level
moisture and isentropic lift move in through the day with cigs
falling to MVFR during the afternoon then IFR during the evening.
Precip chances will increase through the afternoon into the evening
as well. Weak elevated instability is possible during the evening
but chance of TSRA too low for the TAF at this time. Wind turns S to
SE during the evening.

Outlook: Scattered thunderstorms develop Tue and Wed afternoons
bringing a chance for periodic restrictions. Some nocturnal
restrictions remain possible Tue and Wed nights. Brief drying
expected Thursday. Convection and associated restrictions return
ahead of a cold front on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH