138
FXUS62 KGSP 100735
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before
dry high pressure builds in through the weekend.  An active pattern
will set in for the new workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM: Widespread cirrus ahead of a thunderstorm complex to
our SW will continue to move over the area this morning. This has
not stopped the development of low stratus across much of the area.
It should also limit fog to mainly the mountain valleys where the
cirrus is thinner. Can`t rule out some patchy fog elsewhere though.
Some stratocu will continue across the mountains where fog doesn`t
form.

A short wave will swing across the area from the NW today, after
some weak short wave energy this morning. A low pressure center will
move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the
area. This, along with lingering moisture, will create scattered
convection over portions of the NC mountains and I-77 corridor, with
isolated convection elsewhere. Instability is expected to develop
during the afternoon, especially across the CLT Metro area where
MUCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg. Weaker instability is expected
elsewhere. Strong bulk shear develops in the Metro area as well. The
instability and shear combined with the forcing could lead to
isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail the main
threats. Outside of storms, gusty gradient winds are also expected.
Highs will be a little above normal.

The convection should taper off quickly during the evening as drier
air moves in and forcing moves east. Gusts will taper off outside of
the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations.
Skies clear with some mountain valley fog possible. Lows will be
around 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 AM EDT Friday: Expect a brief period of flattening uppper
heights on Saturday, before another shortwave dives down into the
Mid Atlantic Saturday night.  Operational guidance depicts a swath
of deep moisture associated with this feature, but it arrives
slowly.  Increasing cirrus from Saturday night onward...becoming
overcast by late Sunday.  Model profiles indicate enough subsidence
to inhibit any thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons.  Temperatures
will be 1-2 categories below normal on Saturday, rising to within a
category of normal on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Friday: Typical late spring pattern resumes on
Monday with a wavy upper pattern.  The bulk of guidance has some
flavor of a deep trough or closed upper low drifting out of the
Ozarks late Monday and into Tuesday, ushering in better moisture.
Instability looks anemic on Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday,
the GFS and CMC both depict a plume of afternoon CAPE intersecting a
well-sheared environment.  Wednesday thus looks like it could
perhaps be our next severe weather day.  Temps will be near or just
below normal Monday, falling to at least a category below normal on
Tuesday.  Things will warm back up on Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Copious high clouds will remain over the
area this morning. Some VFR stratocu will also be seen at KAVl and
KHKY. IFR to LIFR stratus is developing despite the high clouds.
Expect IFR to LIFR cigs for all but KHKY/KAVL, but they will be
possible there as well. Any low cigs should scatter out or lift by
noon. Guidance showing better chance of convection at KCLT than the
rest of the sites, so have limited PROB30 to that location. W to SW
wind this morning becomes gusty and more WSW for the afternoon. The
gusty winds continue from the NW to N into the evening before
diminishing. KAVL will see NNW wind throughout with very gusty
conditions during the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: Drier and likely VFR conditions can be expected this
weekend. Moisture returns late Monday with active weather possible
by Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RWH