207
FXUS64 KHGX 072040
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A mostly tranquil period is expected through midweek.

For tonight, low overcast skies will redevelop during the night and
early morning hours. South to southeasterly winds will be between 5
and 10 mph tonight. It will feel rather muggy by early Wednesday
morning with lows staying in the low to mid 70s and a dewpoint
spread of only one or two degrees. Some locations could also see
areas of patchy fog, mainly for locations where winds are around 5
mph or lower. Fog, if any, is expected to burn off shortly after
sunrise but low cloud decks could take a little longer to lift and
scatter out.

Quasi zonal flow aloft along with a fairly good cap will result in
mostly dry conditions over Southeast Texas on Wednesday. However,
there is a chance that some of the storms developing over the
central and east central portions of Texas will move into the Piney
Woods region sometime during the late afternoon to early night
hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds and hail being the greatest hazards. Elsewhere, capping is
expected to suppress activity; thus, little to no chances of rainfall
is forecast. It will be breezy during the day with south southeaster
winds around 10 to 15 mph and higher gusts on occasion. The highs
will be a degree or two warmer, likely to be in the upper 80s to low
90s areawide. Some moisture convergence may occur during the day,
which may result in dewpoints in the mid 70s. This would allow for
heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s for much of Southeast
Texas. Given that we haven`t had these indices in a while now, make
sure to be prepared for the heat and take the necessary precautions
to avoid heat stress and fatigue if you plan to spend time or work
outdoors.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning with lows once again in the low to mid 70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Thursday will start out with a cold front situated between Dallas
and College Station, and a dry line across western portion of the
Hill Country. PW`s between 1.7-1.9" will be pooling south and
east of those features. H85 temps look to be between 20-24C and H7
temps 10-14C. Looking for a surface low to eventually form near
the intersection of the front/dryline then trek eastward across or
near the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Atmosphere
looks conditionally quite unstable with high CAPEs and low LI`s,
but the million dollar question is if significant llvl capping
will be able to erode enough, or be overcome, to tap into that
instability for shra/tstm development. Some of the global
solutions seem to think so...mainly across the northern 1/3-1/2 of
the CWA. If it does break, some strong-severe cells are possible
during the afternoon and evening hours and agree with SPC`s
conditional DAY 3 slight risk area. Hail & strong winds would be
the primary threats.  Hires solutions will be coming into view
later tonight & tomorrow which should hopefully aid in forecast
confidence one way or the other.

Once the surface low passes to the east, high pressure will build
southward from the Rockies and Plains and push the front through
the area and offshore Thursday night. Drier and cooler airmass
will then filter into the region late Thursday night into
Saturday.

As high pressure slides off to the east Sunday, Gulf moisture will
flow back into the region. Mid and upper zonal flow looks somewhat
messy Sunday & Monday and most global deterministic solutions depict
better precip chances than NBM during some parts of this time period.
Nudged NBM POPs up just a touch for now, but suspect one of those days
will need some continued upward adjustments as time progresses. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR to VFR cigs during the TAF period with a slight chance of IFR
cigs developing overnight into early Wed morning. Cigs will
gradually lift during the morning and early afternoon hours Wed.
S-SE winds at 08-12 KTS through early tonight, relaxing to 5-10
KTS overnight. Winds will strengthen to 08-14 KTS after 15Z with
the potential for some stronger gusts in the late morning and
afternoon.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Seas holding tough at 6ft at 42019 so will maintain the caution
flags beyond 20nm of shore.  Fetch of light to moderate onshore
winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several
days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks,
and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong
currents in the bays and intercoastal water way well into midweek
and can make navigation difficult. The next cold front pushes off
the coast late Thursday night and early Friday morning with
moderate north and northeast winds in its wake. E/SE flow resumes
over the weekend. 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

There is the chance for periods of showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday, but is not expected to result in any additional aerial
flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks),
however. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the
floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is
safe.

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and
Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or
forecast to go into Moderate or Major flood stage as of Tuesday
afternoon:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Crockett): Rising to Moderate tonight
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Moderate Flood Stage
- East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website
and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the
river flood threat continues.

Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous
rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through
the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and
West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end
of the work week and through the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  89  73  89 /  10   0  10  30
Houston (IAH)  75  90  75  90 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  75  84  75  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$