581
FXUS62 KILM 021331
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
931 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected today and Friday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front
approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by
Tuesday, and our first heat wave of 2024 may develop late next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Fog is burning off right on schedule this morning. Satellite
shows the fog depth was a little more substantial across parts
of the Pee Dee region but even here skies should become clear
around 10 AM. HRRR and 3 km NAM models both show a well-defined
and moderate strength seabreeze will push inland this
afternoon, but with so much dry air aloft there should be
limited cumulus and virtually no potential for showers. Changes
to the forecast were all minor.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy fog, some of it dense, is starting to develop across the
area. Think a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed at some point
in the next 1-2 hours, but waiting to see a bit more fog
development. The lack of widespread dense fog with calm winds
across the forecast area the last few hours has lowered
confidence a bit. Any fog that does develop will dissipate
around 9AM.

Weak high building in from the northwest this morning is
replaced by Bermuda High expanding back into the area during the
day. Weak gradient will keep wind speeds light. Light winds and
temperatures above climo will allow afternoon sea breeze
development. Minimal cloud cover today with deep, dry air
overhead and no rain chances. Skies remain clear overnight with
light to calm winds and increased boundary layer moisture once
again leading to development of fog after midnight. Lows will
continue to run about 5 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and dry on Friday as the mid level ridge gradually starts
to push offshore. Increased moisture and weaker subsidence on
Saturday will bring better rain chances as a weak frontal
boundary approaches the area from the west. Increasing cloud
cover will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s inland.
Modest instability will lead to the development of afternoon
showers and storms. Sea breeze may also produce isolated showers
and storms, but instability will be weaker along the coast and
SE winds will push the sea breeze toward the inland front. An
approaching shortwave will maintain shower chances overnight as
elevated instability remains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stalled front over central NC/SC on Sunday will produce a
similar forecast on Sunday with expanded shower and storm
chances near the coast. The front mostly dissipates on Monday,
but an approaching shortwave on Monday will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms, especially inland.

Maintaining a very warm forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Guidance is producing lower 90s on Wednesday and mid 90s on
Thursday. Conditions at this stage do not appear ideal for near
record-breaking warmth. Therefore, latest forecast is below
guidance as and reflects a gradual trend toward warming
temperatures. Forecast reflects near 90 on Wednesday and lower
90s on Thursday; SW winds mean that areas close to the coast may
not get the relief of an afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR to IFR continues across the area with many sites bouncing
between the 2 categories. Fog will mix out anywhere between 12Z
to 14Z leaving VFR through late evening. Winds will veer from
northeast in the morning to south-southeast in the afternoon,
with a weak sea breeze leading to somewhat stronger onshore flow
near the coast. Speeds will remain under 10 kt across the area.
MVFR/IFR fog expected to develop after midnight across much of
the area given similar conditions to this morning.

Extended Outlook... Generally VFR through the period outside of
early morning mist/low cigs from Friday through Sunday. Flight
restrictions possible Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Weak gradient this morning will lead to
light and variable winds across the waters. Bermuda High builds
back in from the east today with light southerly flow developing
around midday. Speeds will remain under 10 kt today and
tonight, with potential for gusts around 10 kt in the afternoon
near shore. Seas will be 2 ft or less with a southerly wind wave
being dominant.

Friday through Monday Night... Bermuda high will maintain
southerly winds between around 10 knots this weekend, increasing
early next week as winds turn S and SSW. Seas 1-2 feet through
the end of the weekend. Increasing with slightly higher winds
and easterly swell early next week to 2-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/21