Text Products for FWS Issued by ILM

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FNUS72 KILM 160921
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Sandy Island 7...TNC
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
521 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions Wednesday, with
temperatures a few degrees lower than start of the week. Sea breeze
forecasted to move across location between 2 and 4 PM, with south
winds gusting up to 20 mph and slight increase in RH due to cooling
behind the sea breeze front. High pressure will lead to unseasonably
warm and quiet weather through late week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (39578 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............49.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  21  28  36  44  52  61  70  68  67  66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  65  69  73  77  80  80  80  80  79  78
RH..............88  85  75  67  60  58  56  53  54  56  58
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   4   4   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   9   11  12  12  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  13  12  12  12  14  14  14  15  17  18
Stability.......A   A   A   A   B   B   B   B   C   C   C
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  12  12  20  29  49  49  49  45  45  44
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   6   10  15  23  39  39  40  39  38  36
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...011 014 014 014 012 012 012 010 010 010 007

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Min mixing hgt......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 18 mph early in the evening.
Min vent rate.......Poor (12998 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Min ADI.............15.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72  78  84  84  83  83  83  84  84  78  73  67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............76  74  72  70  69  68  68  67  67  67  66  66
RH..............60  68  75  78  80  83  82  83  83  85  87  89
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.13  12  11  11  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.2 0.8 M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.18  17  17  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Stability.......C   D   D
LVORI...........1   3   4   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
ADI.............36  16  15  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....5   5   5   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Vrate mph-ft/1K.28  20  13  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Sfc pres (in)...007 007 007 007 007

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Max mixing hgt......MISSING.
Transport winds.....
Max vent rate.......MISSING.
Max LVORI...........MISSING.
Max ADI.............MISSING.
Haines Index........MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........57     36     26     17     7      8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............66     66     73     79     83     83
RH..............89     89     69     58     43     42
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.8      8      9      10     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....M      M      M      M      M      M
Transport wind..M      M      M      M      M      M
Stability.......
LVORI...........M      M      M      M      M      M
ADI.............M      M      M      M      M      M
Haines index....M      M      M      M      M      M
Vrate mph-ft/1K.M      M      M      M      M      M
Ventrate Cat....M      M      M      M      M      M
Sfc pres (in)...

$$
Forecaster...Oliva
Requested by...Yeatman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411056.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Devin.yeatman@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
