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000
FXUS61 KILN 221728
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
128 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will develop Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
moves through region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will move off to the southeast tonight.
In developing northwest flow aloft, mid level energy will advect
down into our area through tonight, leading to an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The pressure gradient will also begin
to tighten up a bit through the night which will allow for
winds to stay up slightly overnight across our northwest. This
will all help mitigate the radiational cooling tonight with
overnight lows generally remaining in the 40s. The one
exception may be across our far southeast where winds should
remain light and the thicker clouds may hold off until late.
This could lead to a few ares dropping down into the 30s with
perhaps some patchy frost possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level short wave will drop down across the upper Ohio
Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night, with an associated cold
front moving through our area Tuesday night. Increasing moisture
ahead of this will lead to a developing chance of showers from
the northwest through the day, with widespread showers shifting
southeast across our area later Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday evening. Instability remains marginal at best so will
continue to leave any mention of thunder out of the forecast.
Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 50s northwest to
around 70 degrees in our far southeast. Lows Tuesday night will
be mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 shortwave trough pivots east of the Ohio Valley early on
Wednesday. In its wake, surface high pressure centered around the
Great Lakes region will begin to take hold. Precip expected to have
shifted eastward by sunrise on Wednesday, with dry conditions
expected the remainder of the day. Clouds will gradually erode as
subsidence and dry air advection occurs. Wednesday night, favorable
radiative cooling conditions will allow low temps to plummet back
into the 30s, with perhaps some locations dipping below the freezing
mark. Have continued with a frost mention for the overnight period
across a majority of our CWA.

A warming trend will ensue through the remainder of the work week
and into the weekend as H5 ridging builds in across the eastern
CONUS. While dry conditions will continue on Thursday, the ridge
will shift just far enough east on Friday due to a mid level trough
that positions itself across the western CONUS. The broader synoptic
flow pattern of ridge in the east and trough in the west remains
fairly intact through the weekend. However, a series of shortwave
troughs will eject through this feature near the Central
Plains/Midwest regions. This will provide some of the forcing
necessary to help produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms across
the Ohio Valley, especially given the warm/moist air mass that will
be in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High and mid level clouds will increase from the northwest
tonight ahead of some mid level energy moving into the region.
Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will
lead to a developing chance of showers through the day on
Tuesday. Clouds will continue to thicken up and lower during the
day on Thursday but cigs will remain VFR through the TAF
period. Ahead of the front, southwest winds will begin to
increase with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible later
Tuesday morning and into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...JGL