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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221834
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
234 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms
  near MI/IN border.

- Frost along with near or sub-freezing temperatures Thursday
  morning.

- Warm temperatures this weekend along with showers/thunderstorms
  and gusty southerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Pleasant remainder of the afternoon is on tap with dry/breezy
southwest winds around 15 mph with higher gusts, and high
temperatures in the mid 60s. Be mindful with open flames around any
fine fuels that might have dried out, as the breezy and dry airmass
will help to carry fire quicker.

Our next round of precipitation arrives late tonight into Tuesday
out ahead of an upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes
region. The greatest axis of heaviest rainfall appears to be along
and south of US-30 where up to 3/4 of an inch is possible.
Elsewhere, 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch can be anticipated. HREF shows an
axis of SBCAPE along and north of the Indiana Toll Road, so have
added slight thunder chances here Tuesday afternoon/evening.


Post-frontal surface high pressure builds in Wed-Thu with cool
temperatures and mostly clear skies. Areas of frost and even some
sub-freezing temperatures will be possible Thursday morning. A
significant pattern changes arrives by Friday and Saturday as warm
air advection spreads deep moisture out ahead of a phased low-
pressure system ejecting out of the Central/Northern Plains. PWATs
around 1.5 inches will support adequate rainfall rates/amounts to
result is some possible hydro concerns. Other than the threat from
thunderstorms and it`s associated gusty winds, by Saturday, gradient
driven southerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph will
create issues for outdoor events that might have tents or
canopies set up. It`ll also be noticeably warmer, with afternoon
highs climbing well into the 70s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through 12Z Tuesday. Winds will stay
gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow as a cold front
approaches with gusts 25 to 30 knots likely. Low level wind
shear is likely early Tuesday morning. Ceilings will quickly
drop Tuesday morning as rain approaches the area, as MVFR
ceilings develop. The heaviest rain will be along and south of
US 30 in Indiana, so have lower visibilities and heavier rain at
KFWA compared to KSBN. There is potential for IFR ceilings and
visibilities near the end of the TAF cycle; the NBM has 30-40%
chances, especially at KFWA where heavier rain is expected by
18Z Tuesday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Johnson