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000
FXUS64 KJAN 152327 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
627 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a closed low centered just north of the Four Corners region
that will continue tracking east tonight then track northeast across
the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This low pressure system will
try to drop a cold front into our northwest most zones Tuesday
evening but the ridging surface and aloft across our region will
hang tough. Although deep moisture is expected to continue
increasing over our CWA through Tuesday, the ridging surface and
aloft has led to a rather suppressed cu field this afternoon east of
the Mississippi river. As the low pressure system nears our CWA
Tuesday, a breezy southeast to south wind is expected to develop.
This will help increase moisture enough to help support the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms over our northwest
most zones by late afternoon. Although a few strong storms can`t be
ruled out, the main focus for severe storm potential looks to remain
just northwest of our CWA and wl drop mention of isolated severe
storm potential going into Tuesday evening. The weak cold front will
stall across northern Mississippi and there will be rain chances
north of Interstate 20 through Tuesday night. Our CWA south of
Interstate 20 will remain dry through the period. Otherwise, warmer
than normal temperatures are expected through the period. /22/

Wednesday through next Tuesday: The extended forecast begins with
a closed low trough digging into the Mid-West into the Ohio
Valley region, bringing a weak frontal boundary along the Hwy 82
corridor and into the Golden Triangle Region by Wednesday morning.
This frontal boundary will quickly push out of NE MS, bringing
dry conditions through the remainder of the day. By this time,
mid-level zonal flow will increase across the Lower Mississippi
Valley Region before a weak shortwave moved through Thursday
afternoon. At the lower levels, a high pressure is progged to
develop in the Gulf of Mexico, which will build weak ridging into
the CWA, allowing for shallow moisture to hang tight across the
region. This will increase the potential for isolated showers and
storms across the CWA, with the highest potential north of I-20,
where only a scattered chance (25-35%) looks to exist through the
end of the week. Temperatures will also be several degrees above
normal, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows
in the middle 60s.

By the weekend, another stronger shortwave will move into the
region, stalling a boundary over central MS. This will allow for
more widespread, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA
on Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the
front will push through, lowering temperatures 10-15 degrees from
the previous week. Highs on Sunday will range in the lower 60s to
lower 70s, but begin climbing into the lower 70s on Monday and lower
80s on Tuesday. Conditions will also dry out by Monday, allowing for
a calm start to the next work week. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions remain with SCT/BKN cirrus spreading over the area.
Look for MVFR and IFR conditions to develop later tonight starting
with the southern areas between 07-10z then rest of the area by
11-13z. South locations have the potential to see a window of IFR
between 10-13z with all areas improving through mid/late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing from 17z into the remainder of the
afternoon. Winds will be breezy with gusty conditions peaking
between 17-23z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  84  67  82 /   0   0  10  10
Meridian      61  85  65  82 /   0   0   0  20
Vicksburg     65  85  68  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   62  83  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       65  84  68  84 /   0  10   0   0
Greenville    66  82  70  84 /  10  20  30  10
Greenwood     66  82  68  83 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/CME