322
FXUS64 KJAN 301030
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
530 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Dense fog has developed across the area and has prompted the
issuance of a dense fog advisory through 9 AM this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Today and tonight...

Fog has developed across the area under clear skies in the wake of a
shortwave and will likely persist through the night and into early
morning. Fog will begin to mix to a low stratus deck before lifting
later this morning. Clouds will gradually clear this afternoon. High
temperatures should reach the mid 80s. Quiet conditions continue
tonight under the influence of upper ridging and surface high
pressure. This should allow temperatures to drop to the low 60s
across the area tonight./SAS/

Wednesday through Monday: Warmer than normal through the period with
disturbed weather as the southern branch of the jet stream meanders
over the region combining with a few stalled boundaries.

Come Wednesday morning shortwave ridging aloft will be over our
region while a surface high will be centered over the Appalachians
and ridging back across our CWA. Wl start out rather dry with
PWATs less than an inch but the ridging aloft and the surface high
will shift east through the day resulting in a decent return
flow. PWATs will increase to nearly an inch and a half across the
southwest and daytime heating will lead to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon. This activity should see a
distinct diurnal trend and dissipate by early evening. Thursday a
northern stream disturbance will help develop a nearly stacked low
over the northern Plains. This system will drop a cold front our
way. In addition a southern stream disturbance moving out of the
southern Plains may develop an mcs by Thursday afternoon over east
Texas that may edge into our western zones before dissipating.
Rain chances will increase over our west and northwest zones
Thursday and Thursday night. The cold front is expected to drop
into our CWA Friday and lead to greater rain chances across our
whole CWA but the greatest rain chances will be across the
northwest half of the CWA. The stalled cold front will still be
over our CWA Saturday when another northern stream disturbance
tries to drop a boundary into our CWA. This boundary looks to
stall across the northern portions of our CWA. Friday night into
Monday morning rain chances will likely be confined to the north
of Interstate 20 while our southern zones remain dry. Highest
afternoon temperatures are expected across our southern zones that
may top out near 90F each afternoon Saturday through Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

LIFR/IFR conditions this morning due to fog and very low
ceilings. Things should improve by mid morning as most fog lifts
and clouds will begin to clear by early afternoon. VFR conditions
will prevail for the remainder of the period once fog clears.
Winds remain light and variable./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  62  88  64 /   0   0  20  10
Meridian      84  60  88  62 /   0   0  10   0
Vicksburg     84  62  88  65 /   0   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   86  63  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       85  63  87  65 /   0  10  30   0
Greenville    83  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
Greenwood     83  63  88  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

SAS20/22/SAS20