Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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646 FXUS62 KJAX 041712 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 112 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Early to mid morning convection and cloud cover that pushed across the region has disrupted the usual diurnal convective cycle and has delayed the onset of sea breeze circulations this afternoon, but as enough partial sunshine pushes the temps into the 80s through the remainder of the afternoon hours, expect a resurgence of scattered to numerous showers and storms along old outflow boundaries and inland moving sea breeze through the early evening hours, with a few isolated strong storms possible over inland areas with gusty winds, but the overall main impact will be some locally heavy rainfall due to the slow storm movement and frequent lightning in some of the activity. With the late start to convection, expect activity to linger until around midnight as weakening storms become lingering shower activity and drift back towards the Atlantic Coast. Partly cloudy skies develop overnight with patchy fog development over inland areas, with locally dense fog possible where more significant rainfall fell today, most likely across inland SE GA towards sunrise Sunday morning. Low temps generally in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Upper level high pressure ridge will build over the forecast area Sunday. Latest guidance indicates potential for scattered to numerous showers and t-storms along sea breezes during the afternoon. A weak shortwave trough passes N of forecast area Monday, leading to greater coverage of showers N of forecast area extending S across our s-ctrl GA counties, with lesser coverage further S. Temperatures during this period are expected to be slightly above normal, with highs in the mid-upper 80s inland, lower 80s immediate coast, with morning lows in the mid-upper 60s inland, near 70 coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 A more substantial upper ridge builds over the forecast area during this period in response to an intense storm system over the central U.S. The latest guidance suggests this will be a drier and warmer period for forecast area, with well-above normal temperatures. By Wed-Fri, high temperatures will be in the lower- mid 90s, with morning lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Late Friday a cold front will move over s-ctrl GA introducing a chance of showers with slightly cooler temperatures there. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Early morning convection over SE GA and abundant clouds has delayed onset of diurnal sea breeze convection which should kick off just a few hours later than usual and expect just VCSH at coastal TAF sites, while still expect TEMPO TSRA possible at GNV from 21-24Z and possible VCTS at VQQ, but otherwise less coverage than expected earlier. Convection fades after 01-02Z and mainly VFR conds through 07-09Z, then low level stratus/fog expected with MVFR conds at GNV/VQQ/JAX through sunrise, then MVFR BKN025 at all TAF sites in the morning from 12-16Z, before heating lift CIGS to VFR levels with VCSH slowly kicking off at the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure re-positions further south, shifting winds toward a southerly direction early next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. No headlines are expected through the period. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through early next week as local sea breezes dominate the surf zone with breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 88 67 88 / 50 40 20 60 SSI 70 83 70 83 / 20 30 10 40 JAX 67 87 68 87 / 20 40 10 40 SGJ 68 85 68 86 / 20 40 10 30 GNV 66 88 65 88 / 40 60 10 50 OCF 66 88 67 89 / 40 60 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$