National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLBF 120929 CCA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
429 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the 80s will be common Saturday through
  Monday.

- Wind gusts near or above 40 mph are predicted Monday and Tuesday
  and this might be too low. Later forecasts may feature wind
  gusts of 50 mph or higher both days. For this forecast, the
  chance for high winds Tuesday is rated at low to medium. The
  chance of high winds Monday is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The forecast Friday and Saturday continues to revolve around
temperatures and the prospect of highs in the 80s; the warmest
weather since October 2023, 6 months ago. The forecast leans on the
bias corrected short term model blend which was close to the
guidance blend but cooler than the lofty NBM 50th.

The NBM is very tightly clustered today through Monday offering just
4 to 6 degrees of spread between the 25th and 75th temperatures.
This suggests a very high degree of model agreement with the 50th
temperature. Our forecast highs today are 1 degree or so cooler than
the NBM 50th. This mark down increases to about 3 degrees Saturday
in the expectation of cirrus moving in from Colorado. The FV3 and
NAMnest also suggested the potential for isolated afternoon
convection across the Sandhills Saturday. This activity would likely
be so high-based and moisture starved that little or no rain would
reach the ground. Mixing heights Saturday reach 550 mb, according to
the RAP model.

Otherwise, the models are in very good agreement showing warm air
advection commencing this morning and continuing through tonight.
Temperatures aloft plateau Saturday morning with H850-700 mb
readings around 22C and 7.5C, resp. An increase in upper level
moisture across the Colo Rockies Saturday is the basis for the cloud
forecast. The models show this moisture decreasing Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The forecast continues to feature highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s Sunday and Monday. Temperatures aloft at h700mb remain
between 5C and 7C. The NBM 50th continues to run warm with highs
in the mid to upper 80s which would be close to record.
Generally, temperatures at h700mb should be close to 10C highs
of 90 and a fairly strong near-sfc super-adiabatic LR will be
needed for the NBM to verify.

WPC and the models show a 985-990mb sfc low circulating through
Nebraska Tuesday. The ECM/ENS model solution shows wind gusts of 50
to 55 mph; the GFS and NBM show lesser speeds. If not for the rapid
exit of the sfc low Tuesday night, the prospect of high winds would
loom large. Our going forecast for winds 25-30 mph gusting to 40 to
45 mph will be subject to mark up as warranted in later forecasts.

Both the GFS and ECM models 7-day QPF show a dry spot across much of
wrn and ncntl Nebraska; less so with the ensembles. The models show
the Tuesday system in the most favored or sweet spot for rain-
translating through WY, then south and east along the KS/NEB border.
The massive dry slot the models show Monday and the quick storm
motion Tuesday appear to be limiters for QPF. The NBM POPs for this
system are CHC-Likely which appear too high. Later forecasts will
make the mark-down as warranted.

Following the exit of the Tuesday system, the models are in good
agreement dropping and upper low south through Canada and then east
into the upper Midwest by Thursday. Unfortunately, the focus and
forcing for rain or snow will be well north of Nebraska favoring
Canada and the Dakotas. Chance POPs are in place across wrn/ncntl
Nebraska for this system. The basis for this POP is cold air aloft
featuring h700mb temperatures -10C or colder.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Wind remain light and
variable through late this morning, before strengthening from
the south and gusting to around 20 kts this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown