Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230423
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1123 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows broad surface low over the Southeast U.S. with weak
high pressure over Texas, and a stronger surface high further
north, building across the area. Aloft, the mid to upper low
centered over Northern Mississippi. Across our region, northwest
winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph as the cold air
advection continues across the region. See marine discussion for
the expansion of the Small Craft Advisory. Wrap around clouds from
the mid to upper low will continue to be hit and miss overnight
across inland locations. Overall, expect morning lows near
50/lower 50s north of I-10, and lower/mid 50s further south.
Overall, forecast on track with no major changes made.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

As mentioned above, a few showers or isolated storms will be
possible late this afternoon into early this evening as spotty
convection develops along the southwestern flank of the low aloft.
This convection should diminish as the system moves further away
and daytime heating wanes. Expect a gradual decrease in cloud
cover overnight, with the passage of a secondary front helping to
reinforce a drier airmass over the region. Temperatures are
expected to fall to around 50 across the northern zones with lower
50s across the southern zones, right close to mid to late March
climatological normals.

Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for the weekend as
ridging at the surface and aloft pass over the region. Under
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies on Saturday, temperatures
should climb into the 70s areawide. An increase in high clouds is
expected Saturday night, with low clouds developing during the day
Sunday as low level winds become more southeasterly. Winds will
gradually strengthen and become gusty on Sunday as low pressure
develops over the plains, but are expected to remain below
advisory levels at this time. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal values through the weekend.

By Sunday night into Monday, southwesterly flow will develop
aloft as a large trough moves into the western US. A strengthening
LLJ will transport moisture across TX into the central plains as
surface low pressure deepens in response to a series of impulses
rotating through the trough and ejecting into the central and
southern plains. Strong southerly gradient winds will develop
over the area on Monday, and this may necessitate the issuance of
wind advisories for at least part of the area, especially with
winds gusts potentially reaching 35 to 40 KT as the LLJ translates
over the area. Moisture will quickly increase, with PWATs
climbing to near 1.6 inches, well above the 90th percentile for
mid to late March.

Convection is expected to initiate across NW TX Sunday night
along a cold front, gradually evolving into a line of storms as it
approaches the area on Monday. Forecast soundings continue to
show favorable wind profiles with strong deep layer shear and low
level SRH values peaking between 200-400 m2/s2. This, combined
with modest but sufficient instability, could support organized
convection with rotating updrafts. Given the linear nature of the
convection, this will likely result in a QLCS type system
progressing across the area during the day Monday, with embedded
bowing segments and isolated tornadoes. However, any discrete
cells that form in advance of the line would be capable of
developing supercellular characteristics with all modes of severe
weather possible. The latest SPC outlook for Day 4 (Monday)
depicts a 15% probability of severe weather across the entire
area. The southern plains impulse and its attendant cold front are
expected to move through the region Monday night into Tuesday,
and the main forcing and focus for severe weather will shift east
with time.

In addition to the risk for severe weather, there is also a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall per WPC Day 4 ERO, given the
ample moisture available. Ensemble based probabilities suggest at
least a 20 to 30 percent chance of rainfall amounts exceeding 2
inches across central LA, with lesser totals expected further
south and west. The heaviest rainfall amounts and higher rainfall
rates will be confined with the strongest cells along the line, as
well as any pre-line cells, and these will need to be monitored
for any training potential.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A cold front with a likely line of storms will be exiting to the
east of the forecast area when the period begins on Tuesday. High
pressure from the Plains will be building in behind the front
bringing some breezy northwest winds on Tuesday with drying
conditions.

This high pressure system at the surface will slowly move across the
forecast area during the mid week period, along with upper level
ridging. This will bring pleasant and seasonal conditions.

By the end of the week, the high will be moving off to the east with
a southerly flow off the Gulf helping to bring warmer and more humid
conditions.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Low ceilings have kept MVFR conditions in place. After the low
clouds move out of our region, around midnight, conditions will
become VFR. The VFR conditions will last through the TAF period. Winds
will be out of the north between 10 to 15 knots with some gusts
at the Acadiana terminals up to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwest winds will strengthen tonight into Saturday morning,
then diminish during the day Saturday. Latest HRRR guidance, plus
observations from the wind sensor at at Cypremort Point, LA (VCPL1)
suggest slightly higher sustained winds near 20 kts, so have expanded
the Small Craft Advisory to include Vermilion & Atchafalaya Bays.
With the winds and seas staying elevated a few hours longer Saturday,
extended the Small Craft Advisory into the afternoon hours.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  71  45  73 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  53  74  49  73 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  54  72  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  54  77  54  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-450-
     470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ435-436-452-
     455-472.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14


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