122
FXUS64 KLCH 272341
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
641 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)

Wx map shows a large surface high over the Eastern United States,
an exiting surface low/mid to upper level shortwave over the Great
Lakes, and another developing surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle,
with the stronger deep layer mid to upper level trough across the
Western U.S. Our region remains in the tight pressure gradient
between the surface high to our east and surface low to the northwest.
The result, its windy out there. Along and south of the I-10 corridor,
southeast winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts of 35 to over 40 mph
have already occurred. Winds north of the I-10 corridor slightly
less around 20 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph, all meeting the
Wind Advisory criteria. Latest guidance continues to suggest these
winds remaining steady state this evening and overnight as the
pressure gradient tightens further. Thus, no changes to ongoing
Wind Advisory.

Coastal flooding issues continue to increase for late tonight through
Sunday. Latest P-ETSS guidance show tides will be 1.75 to 2.5 feet
Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high tide from
daybreak through late Sunday morning across coastal Jefferson
County and coastal Cameron Parish. These numbers expected across
the shores of Calcasieu Lake, Lake Charles, and Sabine Lake from
late morning into Sunday afternoon. Thus, have upgraded these area
to a Coastal Flood Warning. Further east across coastal
Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, the guidance shows
levels to reach 1.5 to 1.75 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
during the times of high tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal
Flood Advisory.

By late Sunday afternoon into Monday, the longwave mid to upper
level trough over the west expected to approach closer to the
area, with the shortwave trough moving through the area on Monday.
This will place our region in the diffluent flow aloft for late
Sunday night into most of the day Monday. Thus, chances of showers
and thunderstorms have increased during this period, along with
expected rainfall amounts. Latest QPF expected from Sunday night
through Monday night show 2 to 4 inches north of I-10, with
generally 1 to 2 along I-10, and 0.5 to 1.0 inches along the
coastal parishes and counties. WPC has continued Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall along and north of I-10, Marginal Risk further
south on the Day 2-3 outlooks essentially spanning from late
Sunday night through Monday night. Severe thunderstorm potential
has increased as well. SPC has increased areas north of U.S. 190
to a Slight Risk, Marginal Risk further south, for essentially the
same time period. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)

Tuesday is anticipated to remain potentially stormy across the
region as residual moisture remains in place. The weak frontal
boundary is expected to have lifted back north, however PWATs are
still forecast to remain in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range which is
around the 90th percentile for the date. These high moisture values
will combine with a lack of ridging aloft and daytime heating to
produce scattered to numerous showers and storms.

Very weak ridging may nudge in the area beyond mid week, however
isolated to scattered diurnal convection is still anticipated along
with temperatures running several degrees above climo averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Windy conditions will persist at all area terminals through the
taf period as the region remains sandwiched between a large
surface high along the east coast and a deep low centered over the
central plains. Ceilings will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR
through the evening becoming more predominantly MVFR late tonight
into Sunday morning before improving to VFR again by late morning.
A slowly approaching frontal boundary will approach the region
from the west Sunday evening initializing increasing convection
across Southeast Texas after 21Z with activity expanding into
southwest Louisiana later in the evening beyond this forecast
period.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...

A tight pressure gradient between a series of lows over the
Southern Plains and a surface high off the east coast will allow
for a prolonged period of strong and gusty onshore winds to
continue through Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for all
waters continues through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will
slowly subside by Sunday night and Monday as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase
Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper
level trough approaches the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  87  66  80 /   0  20  50  90
LCH  72  84  69  80 /   0  30  50  80
LFT  71  87  71  83 /   0  10  20  80
BPT  73  82  71  81 /   0  40  60  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ073-
     074-241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...66