381
FXUS64 KLCH 180431
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1131 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The main concern for the remainder of the evening into the
overnight is how much of the activity over the Gulf can work its
way into southern Louisiana and how intense will it be.

The 18/00z upper air sounding had a rather stable and capped layer
between 85H-70H. This would tend to weaken and keep activity
elevated and this has been the trend this evening.

However, there does seem to be an instability axis that is located
over the coastal waters about 20 nm offshore the southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana coast. It does seem to push northeastward
from there and into portions of lower Acadiana. Therefore, there
is a better chance to see strong storms into the overnight for
locations roughly east and southeast of a Pecan Island to New
Iberia line. With favorable 0-6km shear and lapse rates, to go
along with enough low level instability, and there is a chance for
the storms that move into the area to produce hail and gusty
winds. SPC is monitoring that area, and locations off to the east
of the forecast area, for a potential severe thunderstorm watch.

Made some minor adjustments to the grids based on latest radar
trends and hi-res guidance.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal partly to mostly
cloudy skies and light showers streaming in from the southeast
this afternoon. This activity will likely continue into the
evening hours, but should remain below severe limits. An
approaching shortwave, in combination with high moisture content
and instability, will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning for areas
along and south of I-10 and the Gulf waters. The latest suite of
high res guidance indicates that the onset of any convective
development is likely to be after 2-3AM for areas along and south
of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line, and is expected to move east
to southeast into early Saturday morning. Forecast model
soundings support the potential for damaging wind gusts and large
hail with any severe thunderstorms.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy
rain may also bring a threat for flash flooding for areas
along and south of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line. HREF
guidance indicates additional amounts of 1-2 inches will be
possible through early Saturday. With the highest rainfall
amounts expected to fall further south of the Flood Watch
configuration, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for this
evening. While there still may be minor issues with recent
rainfall, expect fairly light rainfall amounts through this
evening.

Otherwise, the combination of light winds and high moisture
content may result in the development of patchy fog tonight.
Expect cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 60s region wide
tonight. Ridging is expected to build over the region heading
into the weekend, which will bring an end to the unsettled weather
pattern. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with low
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The work week will feature above normal temperatures with highs
in the upper 80s and low 90s as high pressure and ridging prevail.
In combination with the humidity, afternoon heat index values
will rise into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Unsettled
weather may return toward the end of the week as an upper level
disturbance approaches, but most precipitation chances are
expected to remain further north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A short wave will move across with showers and thunderstorms
developing near an instability axis from just off the coast of
southeast Texas into lower Acadiana. KBPT and KLCH will have light
thunderstorm activity with MVFR conditions until about 18/08z. A
better chance of thunderstorm activity will be at the KLFT and
KARA terminals through 18/12z with potential for IFR conditions at
KARA.

Once the storm activity ends, and for the terminal at KAEX, low
clouds and patchy fog will form with MVFR into IFR conditions
through about 18/15z.

On Saturday, drier and more stable air will move in and this
should lead to mainly VFR conditions after 18/15z through the
remainder of the day.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
across the coastal waters late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms. Light to moderate winds will result
in gradually falling seas late this weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  87  67  89 /  30  10   0   0
LCH  68  87  70  89 /  40  10   0   0
LFT  70  88  71  91 /  60  10   0   0
BPT  68  89  70  91 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...07