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000
FXUS66 KLOX 141022
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
322 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/156 AM.

Cool, showery weather will persist through Sunday with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Accumulating snow and wintry conditions
are expected at higher elevations. A warming trend will begin
Monday with dry and warmer weather expected through the end of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/247 AM.

An upper low over Central California continues to send bands of
showers and isolated thunderstorms into the Central Coast early
this morning, while areas south of Santa Barbara have been
relatively quiet. Models have been consistent showing a second
upper low, currently just west of the Bay Area, rotating through
the area by this afternoon. This will push the threat of showers
and thunderstorms south into Ventura and LA Counties later this
morning and afternoon with locally heavy rain and possibly small
hail. This is a more convective pattern than yesterday which means
precip will be more showery with some sunny breaks, but most
areas should at least get some additional precipitation, generally
a half inch or less, but locally higher near thunderstorms. Snow
levels have lowered to around 4500 feet and could lower to as low
as 3500-4000 feet this morning and in heavier showers this
afternoon.

Showers and storms expected to taper off quickly this evening,
except some lingering showers possible over the northern
mountains near the LA/Kern County line. Snow levels by that time
expected to be closer to 5000 feet so any precip on the Grapevine
later tonight should be in the form of rain.

Dry and warmer weather expected Monday with some locally breezy
north winds. Warmer again Tuesday as high pressure aloft starts
to build from the west and light offshore flow develops. Warmer
valleys expected to reach 80 degrees while interior coastal areas
like Downtown LA and San Luis Obispo reach the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/259 AM.

High pressure aloft expected to last at least through Wednesday
with another degree or two of warming. By the end of the week a
weak trough will replace the ridge and onshore flow will return
for slightly cooler weather and possibly a return of the marine
layer to coastal areas. This pattern will be in place at least
through next Saturday with no rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0041Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, there was only a 5000 ft deep moist layer.

Low confidence in TAFs Cig and Vis will change frequently through
the period. All flight cats are possible but low MVFR is most
probable. LIFR conds in dense fog is most possible for KSMX, KSBP
and KPRB.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There will likely be frequent changes
in cig and vis mostly likely above 010 but with a 20 percent chc
of brief BKN008 conds. Low confidence in wind direction forecast.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There will likely be frequent
changes in cig heights, especially during rain.

&&

.MARINE...14/322 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast through
Monday, then moderate confidence thereafter.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and along the Central Coast, there is a 50 to 80 percent chance of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds through tonight, highest
beyond 10 NM offshore. There may be some lulls in the winds
through noon today, and again late tonight and early Monday
morning. The biggest lulls will occur across the southern Outer
Waters and the inner waters N of Point Sal. By Monday afternoon,
there is an 80-100 percent chance of SCA conditions Monday
afternoon and Monday night, reducing to 60 to 80 percent chance on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is a 20 percent chance of Gale
Force winds on Monday afternoon and evening. There is a moderate
chance SCA winds may last though Thursday, strongest during the
afternoon and evenings.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-60 percent
chance of SCA level W winds late this afternoon through Monday
morning, increasing to a 40-70 percent chance on Monday afternoon
and Monday night. The chance for SCA level winds will slowly
diminish Tuesday through Thursday. The highest chance will be for
the western portions.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for all the coastal
waters waters today.

&&

.BEACHES...14/302 AM.

A marginal high surf event is expected through at least this
evening. Strong rip current activity is likely. On the Central
Coast, surf of 7 and 10 feet with local sets to 12 feet is
expected, highest on west and northwest facing beaches. S of Pt
Conception, surf of 5 and 8 feet is expected Sunday, highest on
west facing beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zones 353-376-377-379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM
      PDT this evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 2
      AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox