949
FXUS64 KLUB 081900
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
200 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Overall, winds are lighter than yesterday afternoon and are
primarily out of the west at 15 mph or less. They will remain out of
the west through the rest of the afternoon. Surface troughing across
New Mexico will transition to a broad surface low and push eastward
into West Texas by this evening. A cold front will follow later
tonight and will back winds to the east to northeast as surface
ridging spreads from Wyoming southeastward to the Southern Plains.
This will help to keep afternoon highs mostly in the 70s area wide
as well raise dewpoints back into the 40s and 50s. Overnight temps
will still average in the mid 40s to upper 50s despite the cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Broad cyclonic mid to upper level flow over much of the CONUS this
weekend will lead to a cool air mass remaining in place Friday
through at least Sunday, if not Monday, before some warming and
reversion to the mean is likely to occur. Favorable precipitation
chances remain the focus of the forecast as the models remain in
good agreement with a closed low near Las Vegas, NV at 00Z Saturday
opens up and moves eastward across the Four Corners Saturday night
and across the High Plains on Sunday. Models have moved into better
agreement with the overall pattern and are now favoring the more
progressive GFS solution from this time yesterday. As such Saturday
into Sunday look favorable with shower and thunderstorm chances with
fairly moist, upslope low level flow has broader dynamic lift moving
over it with the possibility for the added ingredient of isentropic
lift just above the cool air mass. NBM remains bullish with precip
chances as early as Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and then
diminishing quickly Sunday evening as lift shifts to the east of the
forecast area. NBM PoPs may be a bit high Monday afternoon with the
potential for the mid/upper trough to be to the east of the forecast
area but will leave those alone at this time given some lingering
uncertainty with timing of the evolution. The models continue to
diverge late in the period with the pattern Tuesday and Wednesday,
although the potential for another short wave trough developing over
the central High Plains support a thunderstorm mention in the
forecast into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...51