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000
FXUS64 KLUB 191934
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
234 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Will maintain a cool and wet forecast for the period from late
tonight through the day Saturday. Elevated instability will be
present above the cool boundary layer air mass in place across the
forecast area, although there will likely a be a fairly healthy
amount of convective inhibition with an inversion located just above
the level of highest instability. However, the combination of
isentropic upglide and dynamic lift from an approaching mid/upper
level short wave trough should be sufficient to release the
instability. That instability will be maximized across the southern
third of the forecast area and centered around the 12Z-15Z time
frame with progged MUCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg clearly
sufficient for thunderstorms and potentially even some hail. Upglide
on near the 295 and 300 K surfaces will initially act on the
elevated instability across the Rolling Plains late tonight, but
increasing lift from the approaching trough will see convective
initiation across eastern New Mexico with showers and some
thunderstorms moving eastward across the forecast area. The
inherited PoPs of near or at 100 percent looks okay although there is
some concern about with how widespread the response to the lift will
be given the open nature to the trough. However, there is not enough
evidence at this time to be backing off precip chances at this time.

Temperatures will be the other issue with MVFR ceilings expected
through much/all of the period after moving back across the forecast
area early this evening will result in a narrow diurnal range. NBM
and MOS already handling this well with no significant movement away
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough axis will shift east of our area after sunset on
Saturday with a corresponding decrease in coverage of showers
expected from west to east through the evening and overnight period.
Even so, a saturated lower atmosphere and continuing upslope flow
support maintaining low chance PoPs area-wide on Saturday night,
with some very light showers or drizzle possible over the entire
area through early Sunday morning. Things will dry out through the
rest of the day on Sunday as the upslope flow component weakens and
surface ridging builds into the region, but lingering cloudiness
will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs Sunday afternoon
only reaching around 60. Dry and warm conditions will then return
Monday through Tuesday as upper ridging builds beneath a quick-
moving upper trough over the Midwest. This Midwest system is
progged to send another cold front through our area late Tuesday
into Wednesday which will set the stage for our next round of
thunderstorm chances mid/late next week. Initially these precip
chances should be more isentropically driven on Wednesday,
potentially transitioning into a more classic dryline setup
Thursday into Friday within deeper southwest flow aloft. It is
worth noting the large spread within deterministic and ensemble
guidance which results in large uncertainty and a large range of
possible outcomes. Nevertheless, potential does exist for a more
active weather period during the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Ceilings are hanging on longer than expected with satellite
imagery suggesting more than models that they will continue to do
so. Still, those ceilings are above 3000 ft at all three terminals
and should remain that way into the evening. However, sub-3000 ft
bases are expected to return to KLBB and KPVW mid to late evening
with an increase in shower coverage toward sunrise Saturday.
Elevated instability could be sufficient for some thunder at
KLBB, especially with the earliest showers but confidence in
coverage and timing remains too low to insert mention in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07