601
FXUS61 KLWX 060759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern will continue through mid-week as multiple
disturbances pass through the area. A cold front will move through
toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Conditions remain rather stagnant and saturated early this
morning. As a result, fog is forming across much of the area. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 10 AM for portions of
the Central Virginia Piedmont, Shenandoah Valley, West Virginia
Panhandle, and Northern Maryland. The Dense Fog Advisory may
potentially need to be expanded further closer to daybreak.

Fog should gradually dissipate over the course of the morning.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy through the day, but
cloud bases will start to rise heading into the afternoon as
mixing deepens. It will be much warmer today, with temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A disturbance evident on water vapor imagery over the lower
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys early this morning will slowly drift
eastward over the course of the day. Large scale lift ahead of
this disturbance will combine with daytime heating and the
resultant buildup of instability to initiate thunderstorms
during the mid- late afternoon hours to the west of the Blue
Ridge. These showers and storms will gradually drift eastward,
and may potentially impact the I-95 corridor during the evening
into the first half of the overnight.

Model soundings show a profile that is saturated through a deep
layer, with unimpressive low-level lapses, around 20 knots of
0-6 km shear, and around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Such a profile
shouldn`t be conducive to producing damaging winds, but may be
more favorable for producing very heavy rainfall. Some guidance
shows a weak surface trough extending west to east across the
area late this afternoon into this evening. That boundary may
potentially serve as a focus for initiation of storms. Storms
should have some forward motion today, but a few isolated
instances of flash flooding can`t be ruled out, especially in
the vicinity of where that weak surface trough sets up.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should keep going through the
first half of the night as it drifts eastward across the area.
Patchy fog may again be possible during the second half of the
night. Lows overnight tonight should generally be in the low-mid
60s, with upper 50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will remain unsettled heading into Tuesday and
Wednesday, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon. Decaying convection from the Ohio Valley may
also potentially impact the area during the overnight hours
Tuesday night. Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and
lower 80s on Tuesday. Even warmer temperatures are expected on
Wednesday, with highs reaching into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will approach the region by Thursday, ushering in
an abundance of moisture to the Mid-Atlantic. Instability ahead
of the frontal passage continues to be elevated, this may lead
to some isolated instances of strong to severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Along with the limited severe
threat is the isolated threat for flooding in areas that receive
higher rainfall totals Thursday coupled with previously
received rainfall over the last few days before. Uncertainty is
still present with this system, especially with respect to
timing and potential impacts. Highs on Thursday will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for most lower elevations with upper 60s
for the mountains.

Soon after the frontal passage on Friday, lingering low-level
moisture will probably stick around. Will keep elevated PoPs Friday
before lessening for the weekend with just normal springtime
precipitation and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon hours. High
temperatures will slowly increase behind the front and into early
next week, with 60s by Saturday eventually rising to the low to mid
70s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR ceilings are expected to persist through much of the morning,
with improvement back to VFR conditions during the afternoon. Fog
will also be possible at the terminals through mid-morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will overspread the area from SW to NE during the
late afternoon and evening hours. VCTS has been introduced at all
TAF sites this evening. IFR ceilings and fog both appear possible
again tonight after the thunderstorms move out. Gradual improvement
back to VFR conditions is expected again on Tuesday, but afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again. The threat
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is lower on Wednesday,
but still non-zero.

Light and somewhat variable winds are expected for both today and
Tuesday. Winds will turn out of the west on Wednesday, and may
gust to around 15-20 knots at times.

Sub-VFR ceilings will likely persist through much of Thursday with
increasing rain chances along with thunderstorms for the terminals.
A few storm, especially along and east of the I-95 corridor may
become strong to severe. Westerly winds on Thursday will soon be met
with northwesterly gusts Friday as a frontal passage occurs.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds are expected over the waters both today and on
Tuesday. However, SMWs may be needed as thunderstorms approach
the waters. The most likely time for thunderstorms to impact the
waters today looks to be during the evening and overnight hours.
Winds will turn westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near
SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.

SCA conditions are becoming increasingly likely Thursday, with an
isolated threat for a few SMWs to be issued due to an strong
thunderstorms that cross the waters. Improvements return Friday
behind the cold front with elevated northwesterly winds in
place.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sensitive tidal sites like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront will
continue to experience minor tidal flooding for the morning high
tide cycle before dissipating. Further minor flooding will be
possible for the next high tide cycle before improvements are felt
in the tidal anamolies through midweek. Additional periods of
coastal flooding are possible in Wednesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ001-
     003>006-008-501-502-507-508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ016-017.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ027>031-
     037>040-050-051-507.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ057.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...KJP/ADM
MARINE...KJP/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADM