Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211941
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Overall not a lot of appreciable changes were made to the
forecast/grids this afternoon as high resolution models are in
reasonable agreement.
A frontal boundary remains located over the northeast part of the
state this afternoon with plenty of cloud cover in place. Widely
scattered showers have been noticed across the forecast area as the
air mass slowly moistens up in advance of upper low currently over
the southern plains.
Guidance continues to bring this wave eastward tonight with the main
trough axis passing over the state during the day Friday with a
closed off low straddling the Arkansas/Louisiana border. Models
remain consistent and keep the deepest moisture across the southern
half of the state with a fairly sharp QPF gradient to the north.
QPF could approach a half inch across the southern most counties
with areas along the Missouri border likely remaining dry during the
duration of the event. System pulls out Friday night taking any
precipitation with it and followed by brief upper ridging for
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to run a little below seasonal
averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
After a fair and seasonably mild Sun, the pattern will shift early
week as a large upper trough digs into the Four Corners region and
supports the rapid deepening of a lee cyclone centered over Wrn KS.
Locally, Srly flow will strengthen as a result with modest low-level
moisture advection expected, yielding dewpoint temps in the 50s for
most with values around 60 F over Srn sections.
Rain and thunder will increase W-to-E late Sun evening as large
scale forcing for ascent associated with an ejecting lead shortwave
begins to overspread the area, although the heaviest rainfall will
hold off until Mon when a cold front moves thru the state. PWAT
values will max out between 1 and 1.5 inches ahead of this front,
which is slightly above climatological norms, with 1 to 2 inches of
QPF expected (locally higher amounts possible, especially over the
SErn half of AR). Flooding will be possible, especially if the
system slows from what current guidance suggests and QPF ends up
being higher as some solutions suggest.
Regarding severe storm potential: guidance maintains impressive
dynamics with fast tropospheric flow aloft and strong deep-layer
shear, but as with previous cycles, limitations in more substantial
moisture return will largely suppress instability unless the system
slows and allows for a greater influx of warm/moist air in the pre-
frontal warm sector. The GFS/GEFS hint at this with a slower
progression depicted in the last few runs, but even these slower
solutions hold MUCAPE values at or below 500 J/kg for the area with
higher values noted farther S across portions of LA/MS.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates could offset what would otherwise
be unfavorable thermodynamic profiles, but to what degree that
happens remains unclear. A high-shear-low-CAPE scenario may support
some low-end severe threat, so for the sake of continuity, will
continue offering a mention of this for Ern/SErn AR on Mon. Damaging
winds appear to be the most likely hazard with some marginally
severe hail possible depending on storm morphology.
Most rain/thunder will exit to the E Mon night into Tues morning,
although lingering showers will be possible across Ern sections thru
the remainder of Tues. Sfc ridging will build in late in the period
with temps remaining near to slightly above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
A weak upper level wave continues to approach this afternoon with
mid to high level moisture remaining in place. The system will be
passing south of the state Friday morning with VFR conditions
deteriorating to MVFR and eventually IFR conditions for the
central and southern terminals. Widespread showers will occur for
the southern and central terminals with dry conditions over the
north. Winds will be generally be light and from the east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 48 69 43 62 / 20 30 0 0
Camden AR 52 61 47 66 / 80 80 0 0
Harrison AR 45 69 37 61 / 10 30 0 0
Hot Springs AR 52 65 46 66 / 60 60 0 0
Little Rock AR 54 68 47 66 / 50 60 0 0
Monticello AR 54 61 49 65 / 70 80 10 0
Mount Ida AR 52 67 45 67 / 70 40 0 0
Mountain Home AR 45 70 39 62 / 10 30 0 0
Newport AR 50 66 43 60 / 10 30 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 53 62 47 63 / 60 80 0 0
Russellville AR 52 70 44 67 / 30 30 0 0
Searcy AR 50 67 43 62 / 30 40 0 0
Stuttgart AR 54 62 47 61 / 40 70 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...56