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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181431
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-181630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas and
western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181431Z - 181630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for hail -- and eventually locally damaging wind
gusts -- will gradually expand across southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana this morning, spreading into western Mississippi with
time.  Marginal/localized nature of the risk in the short term
should preclude any need for short-term WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection continues to evolve across
the Arkansas/Louisiana border area this morning, within a zone of QG
ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse moving across east Texas
per morning water vapor imagery.  A few transiently stronger cores
are noted, aided by moderately strong flow through the middle
troposphere amidst an environment characterized by about 1000 J/kg
most-unstable CAPE.

The primary short-term risk remains marginally severe hail, with a
couple of the more vigorous/long-lived updrafts.  However, filtered
insolation through an existing high-cloud deck will yield enough
surface heating to allow storms to become surface-based with time.
As such, risk for a couple of stronger gusts will manifest as well.
With that said, risk should remain local/limited, given lack of a
focused low-level ascent, suggesting that WW issuance remains
unlikely through midday.

..Goss/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32439406 33999225 34549114 34238993 33078995 32639031
            32149288 32179394 32439406