Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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290 FXUS64 KMEG 131120 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 620 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An upper low moving through the region will result in chances for showers and some thunderstorms through Tuesday. A few strong storms are possible this evening into tonight. Dry and mild weather returns for Wednesday and most of Thursday before rain chances increase toward the end of the week as the next system pushes into the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An upper low is pushing across the Southern Plains this morning. This trough is interacting with a front north of the Gulf coast. As a result, showers and thunderstorms prevail across the I-20 corridor this morning extending north into northeast MS. Clouds and light south/southeast winds are resulting in a mild morning with temps in the 60s. Latest CAMs indicate decent precip chances this morning as elevated showers and a few thunderstorms develop across the area, associated with a leading shortwave and warm air advection north of the Gulf coast front. The latest HREF points toward a break in the precip this afternoon before the main upper low and cold front approaches. Expect storms to develop across Arkansas this afternoon pushing into the western portions of the Mid-South this evening. HREF mean SBCAPE values reach 500-1000 J/kg across the Delta region late today with 0-6km shear values ranging from 35-45 kts. Some steeper mid level lapse rates will overspread the area as the upper trough approaches. This parameter space should support a few strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats. This activity should weaken after midnight as instability wanes though chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into Tuesday as the upper low pushes across the region. Could see a strong storm across NE MS Tuesday afternoon if surface heating creates some instability. The upper low will exit the region Tuesday night with a dry and mild day on tap for Wednesday. Thursday continues to look mostly dry with rain chances beginning to creep up in the afternoon across NE AR/MO Bootheel. The next upper trough and associated cold front will swing through Thursday night and Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms though the heaviest rainfall should remain south of the region. The weekend forecast confidence has decreased. There is some concern that the upper low moving into Baja Mexico will not phase with the main western trough (operational GFS) and remains detached (operational ECMWF). In either scenario Saturday still looks ok though Sunday becomes questionable as that detached upper low may then swing through late in the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Current IFR/MVFR ceilings over northeast Arkansas will eventually spread across the remainder of the region by later this morning, although confidence is low regarding the timing. Showers are expected to move across northern sections of the Mid-South later this morning before moving out of the region by this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to start tonight and continue through the end of the forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the south increasing to around 10 knots by this afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ARS