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000
FXUS62 KMFL 101621
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1221 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

SFL currents resides between high pressure centered near Bermuda
and deepening low pressure moving into the SE US. Mid-lvl ridging
is also gradually shifting east of the area, in response to a
mid- lvl closed low moving through the SE US. This setup is
supporting breezy SErly flow over the area today, with residual
mid-lvl dry air supporting continued dry conditions. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 80s
near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s in Interior and SW
Florida. The SErly flow will likely persist after sunset keeping
overnight lows on the warm side (i.e. generally low to mid 70s).

The influence of the Atlantic high will weaken on Thursday as the
low moves eastward and winds will veer more southerly by Thursday
morning and then eventually more SWrly late Thursday afternoon.
The system`s cold front will not cross through the area until the
Thursday night period so warm temperatures can be expected on
Thursday, with highs likely near 90 over the Interior and east
coast. Rain chances will remain negligible for most of the area,
although a few showers/storms could reach the Lake region by mid-
late afternoon. However with the sfc. low lifting N-NEwrd (towards
the Great Lakes) fairly rapidly Thursday afternoon would would
suspect the front will become increasingly frontolytic as it
approaches our area, limiting any severe threat and gradually
making the frontal precipitation field more "spotty" as it
progresses SEwrd.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

With the frontal boundary sweeping across the region during the early
morning hours of Friday, a reinforcing shot of dry continental air
will flow into South Florida. As a surface ridge of high pressure
propagates eastward in the wake of the frontal boundary, the axis of
the surface ridge will settle over the western Atlantic waters late
on Friday into the upcoming weekend. This will veer surface flow from
a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction across the area
with winds remaining breezy in nature. High temperatures will return
to seasonal values with forecast highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
possible across the region. Although low-level moisture will recover
across the eastern half of South Florida due to the onshore
northeasterly winds this weekend, a residual dry column and lower RH
values across inland southwestern Florida could be possible which may
result in some limited fire concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. SE
winds sustained around 15kts and gusting to 20-25kts can be
expected this afternoon with gusts generally dropping off after
sunset, but sustained winds largely remaining the 10-15kt range
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through the
Atlantic waters through Thursday as fresh-strong southeast winds
today shift more southerly on Thursday ahead of an approaching
cold front. A period of hazardous conditions tonight into Thursday
will also be possible on the Gulf waters ahead of the approaching
front. Conditions will improve on Friday behind the front as high
pressure builds towards the area.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Breezy southeasterly flow will maintain an elevated risk for the
Atlantic beaches today with the risk lingering on Thursday due to
residual swell. An elevated risk may also briefly materialize on
Thursday for the Gulf coast beaches as the low-lvl flow shifts
southwesterly ahead of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  88  73  85 /   0  10  30  10
West Kendall     73  89  70  87 /   0   0  20  10
Opa-Locka        74  90  72  87 /   0  10  30  10
Homestead        74  88  71  85 /   0   0  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  74  88  71  84 /   0  10  40  10
N Ft Lauderdale  74  89  71  84 /   0  10  40  10
Pembroke Pines   74  91  72  87 /   0  10  40  10
West Palm Beach  73  90  68  83 /   0  20  40  10
Boca Raton       74  90  70  84 /   0  10  40  10
Naples           74  86  69  82 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Carr