Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 252345
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
445 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New Aviation Section...

...AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

North Bend will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR due to marine
influences, but the rest of the terminals are expected to be in
VFR throughout the valid TAF cycle. Showers will be ongoing
through the evening hours (VCSH), but eventually these should
subside overnight. We may need to take a closer look at low level
moisture from these showers to see if lower ceilings and/or fog
may develop overnight, but confidence at this time is low for that
to occur. However, we may add these conditions into subsequent
TAFs.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024/

DISCUSSION...A few showers are currently passing eastward this
afternoon and are moistly in Douglas County and east of the
Cascades. Snow levels will be above 4,500` this afternoon, so the
Cascades will continue to have snow with another 1"-3" possible.
These showers will start to taper off tonight into early Tuesday
with drier conditions continuing through at least the early
afternoon.

The dry conditions will be interrupted by the next low pressure
system that is developing in the Pacific and will be moving
southeast. Starting Wednesday afternoon, there will be precipitation
and breezy conditions that come with it. The rain will begin at the
coast Tuesday evening, although the more steady rain will arrive
Wednesday morning. Snow levels Wednesday morning will start at 4,500-
5,000 feet and fall to 3,000 to 3,500 feet west of the Cascades and
3,500 feet to 4,000 feet east.

Westerly winds will shift to the south Wednesday, and winds will
also strengthen near the coast, on ridges and east of the Cascades.
More guidance is supporting the possibility of the need of wind
products east of the Cascades Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

As previously stated by the morning forecaster, the low pressure
system looks to meander slowly southwards along the CA coast through
Friday, though some ensemble members suggest lingering troughiness
over the PNW that would continue to lead to shower activity over the
region Friday and early Saturday.

In terms of temperatures, temperatures will be near to slightly
below normal for the next several days. However once the low moves
farther down the coast ridging will build and warming temperatures
with dry conditions will be possible. -Hermansen

AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...North Bend (KOTH) is currently under IFR
conditions and will be under MVFR conditions for ceilings through
much of this TAF cycle. However, inland TAF sites are expected to be
in VFR through this cycle. The one concern is showers coming in
through this afternoon which could briefly bring ceilings and/or
perhaps visibilities down into MVFR, but that should be short lived
and confidence in MVFR actually occurring is low. Wind speeds will
generally be light, but with the front coming through a wind shift
is expected, and a westerly wind speed could become breezy at times
behind the front. MVFR ceilings are possible for the coast and the
Umpqua Valley tomorrow morning with a 60% probability to reach IFR
ceilings, but that will be reviewed in the next TAF cycle.
-Guerrero/Hermansen

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Monday, March 25, 2024..
A weak front will move inland this afternoon with breezy westerly
winds behind the front, continuing through this evening. Mixed
westerly swell will build into the area tonight and Tuesday due to 5
to 6 ft west swell at 14 seconds and 2 to 5 ft west swell at 19 to
21 seconds. Then, a strong front approaches Tuesday evening and
moves across the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will
bring increasing southerly winds, reaching gales, and very steep and
chaotic seas. Winds are expected to peak late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. Currently, the probability for wind gusts to be
41 knots or greater (Gales) is 60 to 80 percent. Have issued a gale
warning for the marine waters. In addition to the gales, expect very
steep chaotic seas that are a mix of 8 ft west swell at 15 to 16
seconds and 10 to 14 ft southerly wind seas.

High to very high west seas are expected behind this front Wednesday
and Thursday, with seas gradually lowering on Friday but remaining
high and steep. As seas peak on Thursday, large breaking waves of 20
to 25 feet are possible along the the coast. -CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$


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