Text Products for FWS Issued by MKX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
000
FNUS73 KMKX 221129
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for North KMOO Rx...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
629 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 22.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest 20 foot winds of 10 to 15 MPH at ignition, with
gusts to 20 MPH, will quickly increase to 15 to 20 MPH, with
gusts to 30 MPH, into this afternoon. Deep mixing heights of 4000
to 6000 feet AGL should occur as well, which will result in
relative humidity values dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range
this afternoon. Excellent smoke dispersal values are forecast this
afternoon.

The gusty winds and very low relative humidity values will result
in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The relative
humidity values could drop a little lower, if deeper mixing
occurs. The middle to high clouds moving in this afternoon may
limit this potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy frost
                    early in the morning.
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................33 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 11 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southwest 15 to 16 mph with gusts to around 24
                    mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph increasing to around 33
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /69600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /69600 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (106900 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   5   17  29  41  50  59  68  74
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  51  55  59  61  63  64  65  65  64
RH..............53  44  40  33  28  25  24  24  25  25
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   9   11  14  15  16  17  17  16
20 FT wind gust.10  13  16  18  19  21  23  24  24  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.7 2.3 3.5 4.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 4.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  13  17  23  26  29  29  30  32  33
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100010  18  35  70  107 146 143 146 155 121

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 28 mph shifting to the west
                    around 17 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (67900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (9500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  87  87  88  89  83  78  73  62  50  39  36
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  61  59  58  56  56  55  55  54  53  51  51
RH..............27  31  34  37  43  43  47  47  52  57  63  66
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..16  15  15  15  16  16  17  17  16  15  14  12
20 FT wind gust.23  22  23  25  26  28  28  28  26  24  22  19
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.28  23  22  22  24  25  28  28  25  23  20  17
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100068  30  25  21  19  23  26  23  19  16  13  10

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 29 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (71000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (92500
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  29  37  45  53  60  66  72  68  65  61  58
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............51  50  53  55  60  62  63  64  65  65  64  63
RH..............66  71  66  61  53  46  41  38  35  37  38  39
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  10  10  11  12  13  13  14  15  16  16  15
20 FT wind gust.17  14  14  17  18  19  21  22  23  23  23  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.7 5.5 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.7 4.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  16  18  20  21  22  25  28  28  29  29  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10007   7   16  26  36  71  120 173 161 155 142 93

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Cory Peters
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411695.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cory.peters@wisconsin.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
