Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
823
FNUS72 KMLB 132107
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for St. Lucie Wildfire...St. Lucie EM
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
507 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good afternoon. Southeast winds are expected for the rest of this afternoon,
with wind speeds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Scattered
showers and lightning storms are possible later this afternoon and into this
evening as activity from the sea breeze collsion across the interior will get
pushed back towards the coast. Shower and storm activity will dissipate or
move out of the local area overnight, mainly after midnight. Winds will then
veer southward overnight and decrease to around 5-10 mph. South to southwest
winds will increase to 10-15 mph once again by mid-morning Tuesday with gusts
up to 20 mph possible. Hot conditions are forecast Tuesday, with afternoon
high temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indicies ranging from 100-105 degrees
due to the south to southwest winds and a delayed or prevented sea breeze.
Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible once again on
Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, with any activity disspiating or moving
out of the area overnight. Smoke dispersion values will be generally good this
afternoon and very good on Tuesday.
Wednesday, winds will be from the south to southwest with speeds increasing to
10-15 mph by mid-morning and gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Well above average
temperatures once again, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s with heat indices
ranging from 100-105 degrees. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated lightning
storm will be possible on Wednsday morning, with scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms possible Wednsday afternoon and into the early evening. Isolated
to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible in the evening and ovenright.
Smoke dispersion values will be very good to excellent on Wednesay.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph.
Dispersion index....48.
LVORI...............1.
TIME (EDT) 5PM
Sky (%).........50
Weather cov.....CHC
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30
LAL.............3
Temp............86
RH..............65
20 FT wind dir..E
20 FT wind spd..16
20 FT wind gust.22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2
Transp wind dir.SE
Transp wind spd.20
Dispersion idx..48
LVORI...........1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2300, then 1-8 strikes until
0200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph.
Dispersion index....47 decreasing to 11.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........55 79 84 81 62 53
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 20 0 0
LAL.............3 3 3 2 1 1
Temp............84 80 77 77 76 75
RH..............67 77 87 87 90 94
20 ft wind......SE 15 SE 14 SE 12 SE 10 SE 10 S 9
20 ft wind gust.21 18 16 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 1400 800 400 500 400
Transport wind..SE 20 SE 18 SE 15 S 13 S 13 S 13
Dispersion idx..47 21 13 11 11 11
LVORI...........1 3 4 5 5 5
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....13 increasing to 72 late in the morning
decreasing to 63.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........54 45 36 42 46 46
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3
Temp............74 77 88 95 97 97
RH..............97 90 61 46 43 43
20 ft wind......S 9 S 12 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 14
20 ft wind gust. 16 17 18 18 18
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1500 3500 5600 6700 6600
Transport wind..S 14 S 16 S 17 SW 17 SW 17 SW 16
Dispersion idx..12 29 59 71 76 72
LVORI...........6 4 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Sonji Hawkins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414021.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL HawkinsS@stlucieco.org,guerreror@stlucieco.org,hanceo@stlucieco.org