957
FNUS74 KMOB 021027
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 439 440 441...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
527 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HIGH DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 80 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE BURN AREA...

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and storms today become more widely
scattered on Friday. Minimum relative humidity values remain above
critical thresholds (around 40 percent today and around 55
percent tomorrow) at the burn site. Southeasterly transport winds
this morning will become more southerly by this afternoon.
Transport winds then turn more southwesterly by Friday. Max wind
gusts will generally be around 10 to 15 mph today. Afternoon
dispersions will be good (values around 80).

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog development is
possible once again tonight at the burn site. Fog may briefly
become dense prior to sunrise.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of dense
                    fog early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...366-1951 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 29 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 43 late in the morning increasing
                    to 57 early in the afternoon increasing to 80
                    decreasing to 72 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  50  49  50  50  52  52  52  53  56
Weather cov.....ARS                 SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....FOG                 RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............67  71  76  80  83  86  87  88  87  86
RH..............97  87  74  62  53  46  45  42  43  46
20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   9   10  12  13  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.0 6.0
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8
Transp wind dir.S   SSE SSE SSE S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  12  13  13  13  13  14
Trans wind dir..S   SSE SSE SSE S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
Dispersion idx..10  17  29  43  57  75  84  76  72  72
LVORI...........7   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1829 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....72 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  61  59  58  56  59  62  65  68  70  73  71
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............84  80  76  74  72  71  70  70  69  68  68  66
RH..............51  60  71  76  84  87  90  90  93  97  97  100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SSE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.12  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   7   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5
Mix hgt (km)....1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  13  12  12  10  9   10  9   7   8   8   7
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   3   4   4   3
Dispersion idx..72  9   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   4   3
LVORI...........1   3   3   4   4   6   7   8   9   9   9   9

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the morning. Chance of showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...152-1036 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 41.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  66  67  68  69  68  68  67  68  68  69  67
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............66  66  70  74  79  81  84  84  84  83  83  82
RH..............100 100 93  82  72  65  57  55  55  55  55  56
20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE S   S   S   S   SSW SSW S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   9   10  13  14  14  14  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SSW SW  SSW S   SSW
Transp wind spd.6   6   7   10  8   10  12  12  13  13  12  10
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SSW SW  SSW S   SSW
Trans spd (m/s).3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   5   4
Dispersion idx..3   6   10  18  25  33  39  45  37  38  37  37
LVORI...........9   8   6   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...96
Requested by...Ryan Barnett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412925.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov