Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 201644
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Early morning water vapor imagery and Rap13 500mb heights and winds
showed an upper level low across the Desert Southwest, with
downstream ridging over the High Plains. At the surface a broad area
of high pressure was centered across the Upper Midwest was slowly
sagging to the southeast. As a result, surface winds were light and
skies were mostly clear except for some high cirrus streaming in
from the west.

No measurable precipitation is expected over the next 36 hours as
high pressure will remain in control. Winds will be light again
today with afternoon highs very similar to yesterday. The only
difference will be the increase in high clouds as the aforementioned
cirrus moves overhead. The increase in clouds will keep Friday
night`s low temperatures a little warmer as well, with most
locations dropping into the lower 30s. Could see a few sprinkles or
flurries to the southwest, but no measurable precipitation is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Split flow will be the main reason for quiet weather over the Upper
Midwest for the next several days, and perhaps through the end of
the month. There is a chance for rain on Tuesday, but overall expect
dry weather with near to above normal temperatures. The cold
arctic air will remain well to the north, and so too will the
Polar Jet. Meanwhile the subtropical jet will stay south and keep
the deep moisture and potential for thunderstorms south of I-80.

The dry weather should last through the weekend. An upper level low
currently located across Desert Southwest will bring rain and
thunderstorms to the Southern Plains. Minnesota and Wisconsin will
mostly likely see the convective outflow in the form of high clouds
on Saturday, especially across the southern portions of the state.
Sunday and Monday will have light southerly winds which should allow
temperatures to warm above climatology for late April. Most of the
snow will be gone by then, and given the dry air mass should see
temperatures on the higher end of guidance, so warmed the forecast
accordingly.

On Tuesday an upper level wave moving in from the Pacific Northwest
will phase with a northern stream vorticity maxima diving south from
Canada. These features will merge and eventually drive a cold front
through the region. Models are trending a bit drier with this
system. There is good agreement in the timing, but the placement of
the upper level forcing and associated precip ranges from the
Missouri River Valley to the Arrowhead of Minnesota. The reason
for the uncertainty is difference in the phasing mentioned above,
so for that reason continued with blended forecast since all model
solutions seem plausible at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

A few sprinkles/flurries are possible along the Minnesota River
Valley and areas to the southwest tonight. Otherwise, VFR cigs
with a light south to southwest wind under 8 kts through the TAF
period.

KMSP...

No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Saturday afternoon and Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind less
than 5 kt.
Sunday and Sunday night...VFR. Southeast wind 5 to 10 kt becoming
south.
Monday and Monday night...VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
Tuesday...MVFR possible with a chance of rain. Southwest wind 5 to
15 kt, becoming north.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT



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