Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162323
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

A quiet remainder of today with widespread 80s and classic
summertime afternoon cu field. Clouds will dissipate this evening
with a mostly clear night with light winds expected.

For tomorrow, a frontal boundary will become nearly stationary
across northern MN and juxtaposed with elevated shortwave energy
later in the day. The best chance for precip certainly does look
to be off to our northwest in the vicinity of said front and
shortwave energy. However, a backdoor cold front looks to drop in
from the northeast which could lead to showers and possibly a
couple rumbles of thunder along the boundary in the afternoon as
it pushes into central MN and western WI. Have indicated mostly
slight chance or chance PoPs for this possibility. Showery
activity should dissipate tomorrow evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

The main concern in the long term is the system set to eject from
the Rockies at the end of the week. The main change from the
previous forecast was to slow the evolution of the frontal
boundary and hence decrease pops Saturday. The instability also
looks more limited but should be enough to generate some
thunderstorms.

With the potential slower evolution of the system, Sunday could
very well turn out to be the wetter of the two weekend days if
this trend continues. In fact, the GFS would indicate the precip
largely holds off across the forecast area until the arrival of
the upper low later Sunday, and mainly targeting the southern
third of Minnesota.

Looking ahead to next week, ridging will build in from the
southwest and there could be a few rounds of showers and storms
throughout the week. The temperature trends continue to look
warmer than normal for next week with the ridge building in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions currently advertised throughout this TAF set but
there is still the lingering possibility of isolated
showers/t-storms Thursday afternoon-evening, mainly east of KAXN-
KMKT. Chances too small for inclusion at this point so will
evaluate later model runs to see if the depictions change. Winds
will go light tonight then pick up from the southeast tomorrow at
around 10 knots.

KMSP...Chances for precipitation are generally around 20 percent
after 18z tomorrow afternoon so have opted to keep the TAF dry at
this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TS/MVFR late. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Chc -SHRA/-TS. Wind north 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR with MVFR possible. Chc -SHRA/-TS. Wind NNE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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